17.09.202618:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trader's calendar on September 17-18

Executives at the largest US energy corporations are warning that a full-scale global fuel crisis is now underway. As Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, traditional market mechanisms that previously helped smooth out price and logistical risks have now been largely exhausted, and there is no quick way to improve market conditions. Global commercial fuel inventories have been declining continuously for more than six months, while the scope for further releases from strategic reserves is extremely limited.

The situation has been critically exacerbated by an attack on the Saudi oil pipeline built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which removed at least 2.5 million barrels per day from the global market almost overnight. Over the past three weeks, US crude prices have risen 19%, approaching $101 per barrel, while the price of diesel in the United States has surged to a record $6.23 per gallon and gasoline to $4.32. Additional pressure on prices is coming from China, which, after several months of aggressively drawing down domestic inventories, has been forced to resume large-scale crude oil purchases on the international market.

The deepening crisis is moving beyond the familiar problem of higher crude oil prices, evolving into:

* Acute physical shortages of refined petroleum products

* Insufficient refining capacity

* A lack of secure logistical corridors

Unlike crude oil, which can theoretically be redirected from other regions relatively quickly, new refineries, available tanker capacity, and additional supplies of finished diesel cannot be brought online within a matter of days. Diesel, meanwhile, represents a fundamental hidden cost component for virtually every major sector of the global economy, including:

* Freight and rail transportation

* Agriculture

* Raw-material extraction

* Heavy industry

It also plays a critical role in transporting food and consumer goods to end customers. The transmission mechanism of the shock is straightforward: rising fuel prices increase transportation costs, companies pass those costs on through higher selling prices, and inflation receives a fresh boost, leaving central banks with less room to cut interest rates. At the same time, expensive energy drains household incomes, triggering a decline in consumer demand and pushing the economy toward classic stagflation, in which declining output is accompanied by persistent price increases.

Investment risks and key indicators

The changing market landscape calls for a selective approach to assets. Earnings growth is most likely to benefit oil and gas companies with reliable production outside troubled regions, as well as refineries with guaranteed access to feedstock. Meanwhile, the following sectors are likely to come under significant pressure:

* Logistics

* Airlines

* Chemicals

* Retail

* Construction

A new wave of inflation would support bond yields and weigh on expensive growth stocks. Key indicators to monitor include middle-distillate inventories, refinery utilization rates and shutdowns, the timeline for repairs to the Saudi pipeline, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, China's purchasing volumes, and refining margins. The key determining factor is not the peak price of a barrel, but the duration of the shortage. Strategic reserves can buy only a limited amount of time; they cannot repair infrastructure or build new refining capacity.

There has, however, been some easing on the geopolitical front. Saudi Arabia is expected to fully restore energy transit flows through its East-West pipeline in the near future. Meanwhile, US Vice President J.D. Vance told The New York Post that the conflict between Washington and Tehran will enter a completely different phase in the coming months. According to Vance, the first stage of the confrontation has already been completed. It consisted of:

* The complete elimination of Iran's nuclear program

* The destruction of key facilities belonging to the country's conventional armed forces

* Depriving the Islamic Republic of the ability to project power at the regional level

The purpose of the upcoming second phase is to preserve maximum global stability and prevent Iran from rebuilding its military capabilities. Vance emphasized that only President Donald Trump, as commander in chief, determines when military conflicts begin and end, adding that the United States is not currently conducting offensive operations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also preparing to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Both sides continue preparations for a summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled for September 24 in the United States. Although markets expect the upcoming dialogue to help ease tensions and improve economic relations between the world's two largest powers, investors remain highly cautious. The reasons for this restraint include continued uncertainty surrounding reciprocal tariffs, sanctions restrictions, and geopolitical tensions centered on Taiwan and the Middle East.

September 17

September 17, 12:00 / Eurozone / *** / Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August (final) / Previous: 2.8% / Actual: 2.9% / Forecast: 3.3% / EUR/USD – Up

Annual consumer inflation in the eurozone accelerated to 2.9% in July, reaching its highest level since last autumn. Price developments were driven by:

* A surge in energy inflation to 14.3% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

* Faster increases in the prices of unprocessed food and industrial goods

* A slowdown in services inflation to a four-month low of 3.0%

* A decline in core inflation to 2.4%

In August, markets are pricing in a further acceleration in inflation. The expected increase in prices will strengthen expectations of tighter ECB policy, supporting the European currency.

September 17, 14:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Bank of England Interest Rate Decision / Previous: 3.75% / Actual: 3.75% / Forecast: 3.75% / GBP/USD – Volatile

The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. The decision was driven by the following factors:

* The regulator's continued hawkish stance amid rising inflation risks and higher prices

* The presence of Monetary Policy Committee members calling for an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike

* A slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening involving government bonds

For the next period, analysts expect monetary policy parameters to remain unchanged. At the same time, the regulator's hawkish stance will create conditions for the British pound to strengthen.

September 17, 15:30 / United States / ** / Building Permits in August / Previous: 1.374 million / Actual: 1.433 million / Forecast: 1.410 million / USDX (6-Currency USD Index) – Down

The number of building permits issued in the United States increased by 4.3% in July, showing solid growth. Permit activity was driven by:

* An increase in permits for multifamily housing (+7.3%) and single-family homes (+2.5%)

* Growth in the Midwest (+10.8%) and South (+5.6%)

* A localized decline in permits issued in the Northeast (-1.9%)

In August, markets are pricing in a moderate decline in the number of building permits issued. Weaker construction-sector data will create downside risks for the US dollar.

September 17, 15:30 / United States / ** / Housing Starts in August / Previous: 1.145 million / Actual: 1.239 million / Forecast: 1.310 million / USDX (6-Currency USD Index) – Up

US housing starts fell by 12.4% in July, retreating to levels close to multi-year lows. The housing-market decline was driven by:

* A 15.6% drop in multifamily construction and a 9.9% decline in the private sector

* Decreases in the Midwest (-27.6%), West (-13.8%), and South (-12.6%)

* A localized increase in housing construction in the Northeast (+17.1%)

In August, analysts expect residential construction activity to recover. Improving conditions in the property development sector will support the US dollar.

September 17, 15:30 / United States / ** / Initial Jobless Claims / Previous: 207,000 / Actual: 206,000 / Forecast: 208,000 / USDX (6-Currency USD Index) – Down

The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the United States declined in the first week of September, remaining close to its lowest levels. Labor market conditions were characterized by:

* A decrease of 1,000 in continuing claims, to 1.774 million

* A moderate growth in initial claims filed by government employees, to 388

* Continued overall labor market stability and signs of high employment

For the next period, analysts expect a moderate increase in initial jobless claims. A slight weakening in labor market stability could put pressure on the US dollar.

September 17, 15:30 / United States / ** / Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Activity Index in September (Leading Indicator) / Previous: 41.4 pts / Actual: 47.4 pts / Forecast: 30.5 pts / USDX (6-Currency USD Index) – Down

The Philadelphia region's manufacturing activity index posted a strong increase in August, reaching its highest level since spring 2021. The sector's recovery was supported by:

* Manufacturing employment rising to multi-year highs

* A moderate easing of price pressures on raw materials and finished goods

* A 39-point surge in the future activity index, driven by strong manufacturer optimism

In September, analysts expect a corrective slowdown in manufacturing-sector business activity. Slower growth could put pressure on the US dollar.

September 17, 17:00 / United States / ** / Pending Home Sales Index in August / Previous: -0.3% / Actual: -2.2% / Forecast: -0.7% / USDX (6-Currency USD Index) – Up

The number of US real estate transactions in the pending stage declined further in July. The deterioration was driven by:

* A decline in pending transactions in the West, South, and Northeast

* A localized increase in buyer activity in the Midwest

In August, analysts expect the pace of decline in pending home sales to ease. A recovery in real-estate market activity will create conditions for the U.S. dollar to strengthen.

September 18

September 18, 2:30 / Japan / *** / Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August / Previous: 1.6% / Actual: 2.0% / Forecast: 2.1% / USD/JPY – Down

Consumer inflation in Japan accelerated in July, reaching its highest level since the end of last year. The increase in prices was driven by:

* A slowdown in the decline in electricity prices following cuts to government subsidies

* Higher prices for food, transportation, household goods, and medical services

* An increase in core inflation (excluding fresh food) to 1.8%

In August, markets are pricing in a further acceleration in consumer inflation. Stronger price pressures will increase the likelihood of tighter Bank of Japan policy and strengthen the yen, pushing the USD/JPY pair lower.

September 18, 6:00 / Japan / *** / Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision / Previous: 1.00% / Actual: 1.00% / Forecast: 1.25% / USD/JPY – Down

At its July 31 meeting, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. The decision was accompanied by the following factors:

* A warning about the risk of core inflation exceeding the 2% target

* An increase in the inflation forecast for fiscal 2027 to 2.4% and the GDP forecast to 0.8%

* An alternative proposal from a board member calling for an immediate rate hike

For the next period, analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate. Expectations of tighter monetary policy will support the Japanese yen and push USD/JPY lower.

September 18, 9:00 / Germany / ** / Producer Price Index (PPI) in August / Previous: 1.8% / Actual: 3.0% / Forecast: 4.1% / EUR/USD – Up

Industrial inflation in Germany accelerated for the fourth consecutive month in July, reaching its highest level since spring 2023. The increase in producer costs was driven by:

* A 5.4% increase in the price of intermediate goods due to a surge in metal and copper prices

* A 3.8% rise in energy prices amid higher oil, gas, and motor-fuel costs

* Higher prices for equipment, machinery, and automobiles

In August, markets expect a significant acceleration in producer prices. Persistently high wholesale inflation will strengthen the European currency and push EUR/USD higher.

September 18, 9:00 / United Kingdom / ** / Retail Sales in August / Previous: 3.8% / Actual: 1.6% / Forecast: 1.9% / GBP/USD – Up

Annual retail sales growth in the United Kingdom slowed significantly in July, recording its weakest pace since mid-spring. The consumer sector was affected by:

* More restrained consumer activity following the June surge

* Results falling short of initial market expectations

* Continued cautious household behavior amid high costs

In August, analysts expect retail sales growth to accelerate somewhat. If these expectations are confirmed, the British pound will receive support, pushing GBP/USD higher.

September 18, 11:00 / Eurozone / *** / ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations in August / Previous: 3.0% / Actual: 2.9% / Forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD – Up

Median consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months in the eurozone declined in July, retreating from previous levels. The indicator was shaped by:

* A decline in three-year inflation expectations to 2.7%, while the five-year benchmark remained stable at 2.4%

* Continued high uncertainty due to risks in the Middle East

* Higher inflation concerns among lower-income households

* A modest decline in pessimism regarding overall economic activity

Inflation expectations are forecast to resume rising in August. If this scenario is confirmed, the European currency could receive an upward impulse.

September 18, 12:00 / Eurozone / ** / Construction Output in July / Previous: 0.7% / Actual: -0.7% / Forecast: -1.0% / EUR/USD – Down

The eurozone construction sector resumed its decline in June, moving into negative territory. The sector's deterioration was driven by:

* A continuing deep contraction in residential and commercial construction (-6.5%)

* A sharp slowdown in civil engineering (+0.3%) and specialized construction activities

* A significant decline in construction activity in Spain (-8.5%), France (-4.5%), and Belgium (-4.1%)

In July, analysts expect the construction-sector downturn to deepen. Continued negative trends will weigh on the European currency.

September 18, 16:15 / United States / *** / Industrial Production in August / Previous: 1.29% / Actual: 1.10% / Forecast: 1.00% / USDX (6-Currency USD Index) – Down

Annual growth in U.S. industrial production slowed in July, remaining significantly below the long-term historical average of 3.44%. The indicator points to a gradual cooling of manufacturing activity in the country. In August, analysts expect the slowdown in industrial growth to continue. Cooling activity in the sector could lead to a weaker US dollar.

September 17, 10:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane of the ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD

September 18, 13:30 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD

September 18, 16:30 / United States / Speech by Michelle Bowman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors / USDX

Speeches by representatives of the leading central banks are also scheduled for these days. Their comments typically trigger volatility in the FX market, as they can provide signals about the regulators' future interest rate plans.