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The NZD/USD pair trades within the previous day's range. The New Zealand dollar remains relatively weak due to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's dovish approach to rate increases amid sluggish domestic growth.
By contrast, the US Federal Reserve remains comparatively hawkish and signals the likelihood of another rate hike this year after last week's increase. This backdrop, together with geopolitical uncertainty, strengthens demand for the US dollar and pressures NZD/USD.
Nordea analysts emphasize that the US economy shows "resilience": inflationary pressure shows no signs of abating, and the labor market remains strong. They note that this combination bolsters the case for further monetary tightening. Nordea maintains a view of two more hikes while warning that the Federal Reserve could ultimately need to act more aggressively than currently expected.
On the geopolitical front, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed missile and drone strikes on key targets in Riyadh. Iran has also set seven conditions for resuming talks with the US, including an end to military actions, the unfreezing of assets, and lifting the maritime blockade of Iranian ports. These developments sustain a geopolitical risk premium and continue to support the dollar.
At the same time, the resumption of Saudi oil exports has helped push crude prices lower, easing fears of runaway inflation. That has kept US government yields below the multi-year peaks seen last week and limited aggressive dollar buying.
Traders remain cautious ahead of the planned Thursday meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping; outcomes there could affect Oceania currencies including the kiwi.
Short-term outlook: NZD/USD retains a bearish bias and looks vulnerable to a break of the round support at 0.5700. A decisive break would open the path to further support near 0.5680–0.5670.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at 0.5760, followed by the round 0.5800 level. Above that lies a significant barrier of moving averages, including the 200-day SMA, after which bulls would gain the upper hand. For now, oscillators are negative, and bears are in control, though the RSI sits near oversold territory, warning of a possible corrective bounce.
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