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On Wednesday, silver (XAG/USD) continues to fall as a stronger US dollar and revised expectations for tighter rates put pressure on the precious metals market.
The key restraining factor for silver's decline remains the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy. At its recent September meeting, the US central bank raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points, setting the target range at 3.75–4%, and hinted at another hike this year.
Some Fed officials also hold hawkish views. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Alberto Musalem and President of the Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee expressed support for further monetary tightening amid persistent inflation risks. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also did not rule out additional rate increases.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants assess a 90% probability of another rate hike in December. Expectations of a prolonged period of high interest rates in the US support the dollar and put pressure on precious metals.
In addition, positive preliminary US purchasing managers' index (PMI) data strengthened the dollar and allowed the Fed to continue planning a December rate increase.
At the same time, geopolitical events in the Middle East are having less impact on precious metal prices. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US special representative Steve Witkoff reported prolonged indirect talks between the US and Iran, and US President Donald Trump described meetings with Iranian representatives as very productive.
Tehran has also expressed readiness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions, including reduced US military pressure and lifting the blockade on Iranian ports. Signs of diplomatic progress help reduce the geopolitical risk premium, which negatively affects demand for the dollar.
Nevertheless, tensions remain unresolved: talks between Washington and Tehran continue, and new US sanctions targeting Iran's aviation sector take effect on Wednesday. In this context, markets are closely watching the course of diplomatic meetings at the UN General Assembly.
From a technical perspective, prices are currently vulnerable to a decline toward the 50-day SMA. Bearish pressure will ease only if prices return above key moving averages—such as the 200-day EMA and the 100-period simple moving average (SMA)—ideally above $67.50. Oscillators are close to neutral, indicating weakness among bulls.
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