24.09.202607:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hormuz to reopen? 60-day truce eyed ahead of US midterms. Trader's calendar for September 24–25

Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is open to a diplomatic settlement, but warned it will not negotiate under external pressure. Iranian military officials, by contrast, warned they were prepared to deliver "more crushing" strikes after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran from the UN podium. Trump later described follow-up contacts with Iranian representatives as "productive." Partial restoration of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is also helping ease supply tightness.

Peace plan from Tehran

Iranian representatives on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, via intermediaries from Qatar, Pakistan, and Egypt, handed a formal plan to the US delegation to end the conflict in the Middle East. According to The National, citing regional sources, Iran proposed a 60-day regional ceasefire, a staged reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and a halt to strikes on targets in neighboring Arab states in exchange for lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports and agreeing on a timetable for peace talks. A second round of consultations was scheduled for Wednesday, although formal White House acceptance of the plan has not yet been confirmed.

At the same time, President Trump met with Gulf state leaders, saying he intends to arrange direct talks between them and Iran in Oman before the end of September. Analysts link Trump's heightened diplomatic activity to a desire for a major foreign-policy win ahead of the US midterms in November 2026 — a push reinforced by CIA Director John Ratcliffe's recent contacts with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on Arab-Iranian reconciliation.

Fitch oil forecast

Against this backdrop of often contradictory headlines, after five straight days of declines, oil climbed on Wednesday. Rating agency Fitch Ratings revised up its medium-term oil assumptions, raising its average price forecasts:

• Brent for 2027: from $65 to $70/barrel
• WTI for 2027: from $60 to $65/barrel (Fitch retains a 2026 reference of $87/barrel)

Although Brent averages around $100/bbl in September due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the East-West pipeline, Fitch expects prices to resume a downward trend as flows normalize and a surplus emerges in the global market by Q4 2026. The agency notes that in 2027, the market will likely face a material surplus regardless of any peace deal:

• non-Middle-East production (US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana) is expected to rise by 1.5 million b/d in 2026 and another 1.0 million b/d in 2027
• OPEC+ and the UAE will increase output to offset losses

A demand drop of 5 million b/d in Q2 2026 (of which 1.5 million b/d was in China) helped rebalance the market, and global inventories fell from a peak of 8.2 billion barrels early in the year to a more comfortable 7.8 billion barrels in August. Fitch stresses that a very wide 2027 price range remains possible, from about $85/bbl in a protracted escalation to roughly $55/bbl if peace is quickly secured in Q1 2027.

Wall Street and dollar diverge

Rising commodity prices gave direct support to energy stocks: the State Street Energy Select Sector (SPDR) ETF jumped by 1% after closing the prior session at a six-week low. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.1% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq 100, the index of the 100 largest market-cap names, slipped by 0.85%. Other major US benchmarks also finished lower:

• S&P 500 lost 0.75%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.68%
• Russell 2000 (small- and mid-caps) dropped by 1.77%

Pressure on equities came from a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Selling in the bond market accelerated after stronger-than-expected PMI data showed improvement in both manufacturing and services activity. The prints amplified investor concern about further Fed interest rate hikes. As a result, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.135%, the highest level since July 2007.

At the same time, the US dollar index continued its ascent and traded near a two-month high. The dollar is being supported by rising odds of additional Fed tightening — a dynamic not materially altered by the recent easing of inflationary pressure from lower energy prices. In short, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the course of US–Iran diplomatic talks remain the dominant fundamental drivers shaping the near-term path of global markets.

September 24

September 24, 3:30 / Japan / ** / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September (flash) / prev.: 54.5 / actual: 54.9 / forecast: 55.0 / USD/JPY — down

Japan's manufacturing PMI for August showed further expansion, marking one of the strongest readings in recent years. Key drivers for the sector included:

• eighth consecutive month of manufacturing activity growth
• the largest increase in new export orders since early 2018
• solid hiring and higher volumes of raw material purchases
• rising factory gate prices amid higher input costs, oil, and a weaker yen

Analysts expect further acceleration in manufacturing activity in September. A positive beat would support the yen and push USD/JPY lower.

September 24, 3:30 / Japan / ** / S&P Global Services PMI for September (flash) / prev.: 51.2 / actual: 52.5 / forecast: 52.7 / USD/JPY — down

Japan's services activity accelerated in August, reaching the strongest pace since spring. The sector was characterized by:

• renewed inflows of new orders driven by domestic demand
• continued weak export momentum
• a slowdown in job creation to a one-year low
• record increases in selling prices as cost pressures persisted

Analysts expect further gains in services activity in September. If confirmed, this would strengthen the yen and weigh on USD/JPY.

September 24, 4:30 / Australia / ** / Employment change for August / prev.: 80.3K / actual: -15.8K / forecast: 20.0K / AUD/USD — up

Australia's labor market showed a surprise drop in employment in July, interrupting the prior months' positive trend. Contributing factors included:

• a decline of 32.2K in part-time employment
• continued growth in full-time employment (+16.3K), pushing that series to a record high
• a fall in the participation rate to 66.9%

For August, analysts expect a rebound in hiring and a recovery in labor market conditions. If realized, that scenario would provide support for the Australian dollar.

September 24, 9:00 / Eurozone / ** / New passenger car registrations for July / prev.: +3.2% / actual: +13.6% / forecast: +7.5% / EUR/USD — down

New passenger car registrations in the EU accelerated sharply in June, rising to a three-month high. Factors shaping the market included:

• sustained consumer demand in key European markets (Germany, France, Italy)
• EV (BEV) share expanding to 20.7% of all new registrations
• continued government support for the transition to green technologies

Analysts expect a slowdown in auto sales growth in July. Cooling momentum in the auto market could weigh on the euro.

September 24, 11:00 / Germany / *** / Ifo Business Climate Index for September (flash) / prev.: 86.7 / actual: 88.8 / forecast: 89.0 / EUR/USD — up

Germany's business climate index rose to its highest level in a year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of improvement. The upturn in sentiment was supported by:

• a jump in the assessment of current economic conditions to 88.5 points
• strengthening of the expectations component (89.1)
• early signs of stabilization in the German economy despite geopolitical risks

Forecasters expect business optimism to persist in September. Rising confidence should support the euro and push EUR/USD higher.

September 24, 13:00 / United Kingdom / ** / CBI Retail Sales Balance for September (flash) / prev.: -26 / actual: -48 / forecast: -50 / GBP/USD — up

The CBI retail sales balance for August showed weakness, reflecting sluggish trading conditions in distribution. Sector dynamics were characterized by:

• a decline in the pace of retail job cuts to the lowest level since late 2025
• a marked improvement in business investment intentions (balance at -16)
• a weakening quarterly trade activity balance to -29

Retailers expect improved sales in September. If those expectations are met, it would confirm sector resilience and support the pound.

September 24, 15:30 / Canada / ** / Retail sales for July / prev.: +6.1% / actual: +5.2% / forecast: +3.9% / USD/CAD — up

Canadian retail sales in June slowed versus May but remained above the long-run historical average of 4.65%. The consumer sector was driven by resilient core household spending. Markets expect retail sales growth to decelerate in July. If so, the Canadian dollar will come under pressure.

September 24, 15:30 / US / ** / Initial jobless claims / prev.: 206K / actual: 196K / forecast: 201K / USDX (6-currency USD index) — down

New claims for unemployment benefits in the second week of September fell to the lowest level since late summer. Labor market dynamics were characterized by:

• a drop in continuing claims by 39K to 1.73M, a fresh low for 2024
• a modest rise in initial claims from government employees to 398
• confirmation of labor market resilience in the Fed's assessment

Stronger labor data would weigh on the dollar, while this softer print supports USD weakness.

September 24, 17:00 / US / ** / New home sales in August / prev.: 0.678M / actual: 0.607M / forecast: 0.620M / USDX (6-currency USD index) — up

New-single-family home sales in July fell by 10.5% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly decline so far this year. The drop reflected:

• a sharp pullback in buyer activity in the Midwest (?43%) and the South (?13%)
• local gains in the Northeast (+30%) and the West (+6.2%)
• inventory rising to 9.6 months and the median price easing to $393,800

Markets expect a rebound in new home sales in August. If the data confirms this recovery, the US dollar would likely receive support.

September 24, 18:00 / US / *** / Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for September (flash) / prev.: 17 / actual: 17 / forecast: 9 / USDX (6-currency USD index) — down

The Kansas City Fed's regional manufacturing index remained at its strongest level since spring 2022 in August. The sector was characterized by:

• stronger activity in the production of nondurable goods
• rising price pressures on inputs (to 55) and finished goods (to 36)
• positive readings across most manufacturing indicators
• an increase in the composite forward-looking activity index to 20

Analysts expect the manufacturing index to ease in September. A softer print would weigh on the US dollar.

September 25

September 25, 02:01 / UK / ** / GfK Consumer Confidence for September (flash) / prev.: -17 / actual: -14 / forecast: -16 / GBP/USD — down

UK consumer confidence rose in August to a two-year high. The improvement was driven by:

• a brighter reassessment of personal finances and general economic prospects
• increased household willingness to make major purchases
• lower energy prices following the change in government
• lingering concerns about July's acceleration in inflation to 2.9%

Analysts expect consumer pessimism to ease further in September, which would weigh on the pound.

September 25, 09:00 / Germany / *** / GfK Consumer Climate for October (flash) / prev.: -29.4 / actual: -26.6 / forecast: -27.4 / EUR/USD — down

Germany's GfK consumer climate improved to its least pessimistic level since spring. Improvements were supported by:

• a 16.2-point jump in income expectations into positive territory
• a fourth month of rising economic expectations amid GDP growth
• a modest decline in propensity to saving while willingness to make large purchases remains weak

However, the indicator is expected to soften again in October, a development that would push EUR/USD lower.

September 25, 15:30 / US / ** / Durable goods orders for August (m/m) / prev.: +0.3% / actual: +1.1% / forecast: -0.4% / USDX (6-currency USD index) — down

New orders for durable goods in July posted the strongest gain since mid-spring. Contributors included:

• a jump in transportation orders (+2.3%), civilian (+12.7%), and military aerospace
• increases in capital goods (+1.3%), metals (+1.5%), and machinery (+1.2%)
• weakness in demand for computers and consumer electronics

Analysts expect a significant slowdown in durable goods orders in August. Cooling in the manufacturing sector could put downward pressure on the US dollar.

September 25, 17:00 / US / *** / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (flash) for September / prev.: 55.2 / actual: 51.7 / forecast: 47.6 / USDX (6-currency USD index) — down

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell in September to its lowest level in several months. Weaker household confidence was driven by:

• deteriorating assessments of personal finances and business conditions amid higher fuel prices and trade tensions
• a sharp rise in one-year inflation expectations to 4.6%
• long-term economic expectations remaining below historical averages

Markets currently expect subdued consumer sentiment to persist. Lack of optimism among households poses downside risks for the US dollar.

September 24, 10:15 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel / EUR/USD

September 24, 11:10 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD

September 24, 11:10 / US / Speech by New York Fed President John Williams / USDX

September 24, 12:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane / EUR/USD

September 24, 12:30 / UK / Speech by MPC member Swati Dhingra / GBP/USD

September 24, 15:00 / US / Speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin / USDX

September 24, 15:50 & 21:00 / US / Speeches by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX

September 24, 16:30 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD

September 24, 17:10 / US / Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson / USDX

September 25, 12:15 / US / Speech by New York Fed President John Williams / USDX

September 25, 21:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic / EUR/USD

Several senior central bank officials will be speaking within the next two days. Their comments typically drive FX volatility because they can signal future policy intentions.

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