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The price test at 1.1406 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target level of 1.1378.
The American economy produced an unexpectedly strong September report: the preliminary composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, a 62-month high, while services and manufacturing accelerated to 59-month and 53-month peaks respectively. S&P Global estimated annual economic growth at around 5%, calling this acceleration the strongest since 2015 excluding post-COVID recovery — a sharp contrast with the much more moderate, albeit record-for-its-context, dynamics in the eurozone, where the composite PMI only updated a three-year high at 53.1 on the same day.
For the euro, the problem is less the quality of its own data than the pace: the growth-speed gap between economies on both sides of the Atlantic continues to widen, and with it the market's confidence in further Federal Reserve tightening increases. Another argument for the dollar was a sharp jump in input costs for US companies, the highest in four years, which, together with strong growth, gives the Fed room to continue hikes without immediate risk to the economy.
Today, euro focus will be on a block of German data: the Ifo Institute will publish the business climate indicator, current conditions assessment, and the economic expectations index for September. Forecasts look fairly optimistic, and against this backdrop the euro has a chance to recover in the first half of the day, especially given yesterday's strong eurozone PMI, which updated a three-year high thanks to notable acceleration in both manufacturing and services.
If today's Ifo figures confirm this trend of improving business climate in the region's largest economy, I believe that could give the euro an additional argument against the dollar, especially after yesterday's sharp US-driven dollar strength following the more impressive US PMI. The European Central Bank's economic bulletin, which typically contains an expanded assessment of current risks for the eurozone, may complement the picture and shed light on how the central bank balances strong business activity data against persistent inflationary pressure. I think the combination of positive German data and substantive ECB commentary will determine whether the euro can hold a morning recovery or again fall under the prevailing dollar tone.
For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No 1: Buy the euro today around 1.1403 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1425. I plan to exit the market at 1.1425 and also to sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Expect euro gains only after very good data. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and has just begun rising from it.
Scenario No 2: Also buy the euro if the price tests 1.1372 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect moves up to 1.1403 and 1.1425.
Scenario No 1: Plan to sell the euro after the level 1.1372 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1339, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move). Pressure on the pair will return on weak data. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and has just begun to fall from it.
Scenario No 2: Also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1403 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. Expect declines toward 1.1372 and 1.1339.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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