28.09.202609:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market survives headwinds

When the market rises at the slightest bit of good news and refuses to fall on bad headlines, bulls are clearly in control. The S&P 500 closed the week on a high note as Treasury yields and oil retreated on reports that Iran may have offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said he had discussed the Middle East with Xi Jinping and was optimistic. Still, the new trading week may not be so kind to equity indices.

Iran's seven?day truce proposal was rejected by the White House. The plan would have allowed Iran to circumvent the blockade and resume oil exports; Tehran's economy is suffering from restricted shipments, which puts its leadership under pressure. With tensions in the Middle East unresolved, Brent and bond yields are likely to resume their rallies — a headwind for the S&P 500.

Treasury yields and S&P 500 dynamics

Rising Treasury yields are typically negative for stocks. Higher yields reduce equity fundamentals, raise financing costs, and compress profit prospects. Higher bond yields also pull capital away from equities. Yet history shows many episodes in which the S&P 500 remained resilient despite a rapid rise in yields.

In 1994, Treasuries were sold off aggressively as Greenspan's Fed hiked rates, but the S&P 500 recovered on confidence that the economy was strong enough to withstand a tight policy. In 1999, yields rose again, but the market moved ahead of the Fed: strong tech demand and the dot?com boom let greed overcome fear and powered a stock rebound.

The current environment is a hybrid of those episodes. The US economy is on a firm footing and can tolerate higher interest rates, while the role once played by Internet stocks is now taken by artificial intelligence leaders. It's no surprise the Nasdaq Composite is outperforming other major indices — in September, it is ahead of the equal?weighted S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 by roughly 7 percentage points.

Index divergence dynamics

So equities have counterarguments even against aggressive Fed tightening. S&P 500 sell?offs driven by rate fears provide buying opportunities for investors to pick up shares of hyperscalers and other AI?exposed names.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has managed to consolidate above the upper boundary of a descending trading channel. That said, the risk of activating a 1?2?3 reversal pattern has emerged. If bulls can keep the price above 7,690, maintain a bias to buy the dips.