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We all remember that immediately after the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, Bitcoin slid sharply and even fell below $76,000. The Senate voted to end debate on the bill—49 in favor, 50 against, with 60 of 100 required—so it fell short by 11 votes. The bill didn't collapse over the SEC vs. CFTC turf dispute but over ethics rules: Democrats argued that proposed crypto asset rules for officials would not apply to the president and his family. Yet the market recovered quickly, and there are reasons why.
Senator Thom Tillis filed a motion to reconsider so the bill would not simply die on a procedural vote, but the next Senate session runs from October 5 to November 6—right in the middle of the midterm campaign—so the chances of the bill passing in 2026 look slim.
Still, SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said he won't wait for Congress. He recently wrote that, with or without legislation, the SEC will act decisively within the Commission's statutory authority to provide clarity for US investors and entrepreneurs.
Drafts are already in motion. On September 17, the agency cleared the way for tokenized shares—equity represented as digital tokens—bringing markets closer to 24/7 trading. On September 25, the corporate finance division published nine FAQs.
The catch is that agency rules can appear faster than laws. A future SEC chair could easily rewrite guidance the Commission issues today, and that vulnerability is exactly what the CLARITY Act aimed to guard against. Ironically, Atkins called the law necessary as recently as August to prevent an overbearing future regulator from undoing the agency's work, yet he is now acting without it. I expect the SEC to issue initial working guidance before the midterms, which should prevent Bitcoin from collapsing further; the bigger risk will remain the future path of Fed monetary policy, not the bill itself.
Technical outlook for Bitcoin
Buyers are currently targeting a return to $84,900, which would open a direct path to $87,000 and then to $89,000 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $83,000. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC down toward $81,300. The next extended downside target would be around $79,400.
Technical outlook for Ethereum
A clear close above $2,710 opens the way to $2,770. A further target is the high near $2,872 — a break above which would reinforce bullish sentiment and restore buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,648. A return below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,578. The next extended downside target would be around $2,486.
Chart notes:
Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.
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