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On Thursday, USD/CAD updated the year high and continues to hold near it, consolidating after a significant strengthening recorded over the past four weeks. The current macroeconomic environment is mainly favorable to the bulls, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot quotes remains upward.
The Canadian dollar continues to show relative weakness amid the Bank of Canada's mostly dovish policy and rising trade tensions between the US and Canada. In addition, the recent drop in crude oil prices has put additional pressure on the Canadian dollar, which is traditionally sensitive to commodity price movements. Combined with the US dollar's strength, this creates a positive backdrop for USD/CAD and supports a bullish near-term outlook.
Wednesday's release of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index slightly reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Nevertheless, inflation concerns sparked by rising oil prices continue to keep US bond yields near multi-year highs. Traders also still assign a high probability that the US central bank will be forced to raise borrowing costs before year-end. This factor, along with tensions between the US and Iran, continues to support demand for the US currency. Regarding recent developments in the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire. US officials also suggest Trump may order the resumption of large-scale military operations after the midterm elections in November. This maintains a geopolitical risk premium, favoring dollar bulls and adding further upside to USD/CAD.
For the best trading opportunities, watch upcoming US economic data: the regular weekly initial jobless claims report and the ISM manufacturing PMI. These indicators, together with speeches by influential FOMC members and any new geopolitical developments, will determine the US dollar's direction. In addition, USD/CAD will be affected by oil price dynamics ahead of Friday's US employment report (Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP).
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD remains in a bullish trend. However, the current momentum looks excessive, as indicated by the 14-period RSI sitting in overbought territory near 78. Therefore, further upside may give way to a corrective pause rather than sustained acceleration.
Nevertheless, on balance the situation favors buying on dips, even if overbought conditions prompt short-term consolidation or a modest pullback. Thus, any corrective decline will likely attract buyers near the round level 1.4200 (ahead of 1.4175–1.4170); a break below this zone could send USD/CAD down to 1.4100. Oscillators remain positive, confirming the bulls' advantage.
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