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The US ISM services activity index for September fell to 54.9 from 55.4 in August, slightly missing the 55.0 estimate. Despite the modest slowdown, the reading remains in expansionary territory for the 27th consecutive month, confirming the resilience of the largest sector of the US economy.
However, the report's details are mixed. The employment index returned above the key 50 mark, rising to 50.1 from 47.8 in August, signaling renewed labour demand. Meanwhile, the new-orders index fell to 59.8 from 60.9, while the prices-paid index rose to 74.0 — the highest since July 2022. The latter is especially important: it signals continued inflationary pressure in services and supports arguments for further Federal Reserve tightening.
Weak US labor market: Friday's NFP showed only 29,000 jobs added in September versus a 90,000 forecast, while July/August revisions subtracted 60,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. According to CME FedWatch, markets now put the probability of an October Fed hike at only 18–20%, down from about 64% a week earlier. This marked weakening of hawkish expectations lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Geopolitical tension: Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi said there is no military solution to the conflict with the US, yet Tehran remains ready to return to war. Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stressed the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until Tehran's conditions are met. In addition, Yemen's de facto authority announced military operations against the Houthis. This preserves a geopolitical risk premium and supports demand for safe-haven assets.
Structural demand from central banks and ETFs: central-bank gold purchases remain steady, and inflows into gold ETFs continue, albeit more slowly. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel noted that "the need to diversify toward gold remains significant amid persistent geopolitical tension and credit risk associated with high debt levels."
10-year Treasury yields remain at multi-year highs. The 10-year yield is holding around 5.30% and the 30-year around 5.66% — levels not seen since 2007 and 2002, respectively. For non-yielding gold, this means a high opportunity cost of ownership. Even with falling odds of an October rate hike, the market understands the tightening cycle is not over: a December hike is still priced in with about an 8% probability.
Inflationary pressure in services persists. The ISM prices-paid index rose to 74.0 — the highest since July 2022. That indicates price pressure in the largest sector of the US economy is not easing, which supports arguments for further Fed tightening. For gold, this means even a pause in October would not be a turning point.
A strong dollar limits upside. The USDX trades around 101.90, remaining near the yearly highs of 102.50 reached during the Asian session. Dollar strength makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and restrains the metal's upside.
Real-yield tightening. The 10-year TIPS yield hit 2.91% — a record level. When an investor can earn almost 3% above actual inflation in US sovereign debt, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset diminishes.
Technically gold remains in the $4,100.00–$4,200.00 range, and a catalyst is required to break out. The daily RSI on XAU/USD sits around 38, which suggests a pause in the decline rather than a bullish reversal. Key resistance is at 4,260.00 (50-day EMA on the weekly chart). However, to return to bull-market territory the price needs to clear the 200-day EMA (4,310.00). Nearest support lies at 4,100.00.
Gold sits at the intersection of two powerful forces. On one side, weak NFP and lower odds of an October Fed hike provide fundamental support for the metal. On the other side, bond yields at multi-year highs and persistent inflationary pressure in services limit upside potential.
Weaker labor-market data helped reduce expectations of an October hike, which supported gold. However the market still believes the Fed's tightening cycle will continue even if there is a pause in October.
The key factor for the next move will be inflation releases next week. If CPI comes in soft, yields could fall and gold would gain support to break above 4,200.00. If inflationary pressure persists, yields will remain high and the metal will likely consolidate in the current range or test 4,100.00.
For traders this means closely watching bond yields: it is yields, not rate-call odds, that are determining gold's current dynamics. While the 10-year yield remains above 5.25%, the metal's upside potential is limited.
This overview is prepared using publicly available sources and media reports and represents an analysis of price dynamics that depend on many factors; risk management and position control are therefore especially important.
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