Zůstat 
Obchodní podmínky
Nástroje
On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3272 on Tuesday and rebounded from it. Thus, a reversal in favor of the US currency occurred, and the decline may resume toward the 1.3164–1.3177 support level. Consolidation above 1.3272 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3368.
The market situation remains completely bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave (which is still forming) broke the previous low. Thus, bears continue to hold the initiative. The FOMC's tighter monetary policy stance and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply strengthened the dollar's position. A break of the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567 or after the formation of two bullish waves.
There was no significant news background on Tuesday, but bulls still found the strength to push the pound at least to 1.3272. However, the bulls' attacks ended near this level. Thus, today and through the end of the week, a new decline in the pair can be expected. The FOMC minutes will be released this evening, and they could well trigger new attacks by the bears. I would remind readers that the latest Fed meeting ended with a hawkish decision, so the minutes will also most likely reflect a tightening of FOMC policymakers' expectations. Traders have not needed any special reasons to buy the dollar over the past month, so even the Fed minutes could trigger another rise in the dollar, although this document usually reflects information that the market has known for quite some time. The news background will remain weak through the end of the week, so it will be twice as difficult for bulls to launch an attack. If they were unable to do so when the news supported the euro and the pound, they have even less chance of doing so now. The bulls' only chance lies in the bears retreating. If the bears conclude that further dollar appreciation is unlikely, they will begin closing their short positions.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the pound after another bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator and the pair returned to the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3277. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3159. Consolidation above 1.3277 would allow traders to expect further growth toward 1.3348. A bearish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, coinciding with the rebound from 1.3277.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased for the fifth consecutive week, by 13,059, while the number of Short positions declined by just 4,552. The gap between the number of Long and Short positions is currently approximately 41,000 versus 132,000. The bears' advantage is increasing again. Previously, the bears' dominance raised no questions, but it does now, as the news background has changed in recent months.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
US and UK News Calendar:
On October 7, the economic calendar contains one secondary event. The economic news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Wednesday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from 1.3272 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3164–1.3177. Buying is possible today following consolidation above 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3272–1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.
