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The GBP/USD pair also moved lower on Wednesday, again without strong local reasons, but unlike the euro, the pound remains inside the 1.3179–1.3309 sideways channel. Thus one can say the pound has found a floor and is not falling below it. Recall that on the hourly, daily, and weekly charts the pound trades in sideways channels — not just sideways, but near the lower boundaries of those channels. In the near term, either a strong rally from the lower boundary of each channel toward the upper boundary will begin, or all three flats will be invalidated. Also note the pound sits near multiple local lows across timeframes. Therefore, a liquidity sweep of recent extremes followed by an upward reversal is quite possible. As much as the market favors the dollar now, it cannot rise forever. The Bank of England could raise the policy rate at its next meeting, and the dollar has already overshot its rise many times. We see no clear reasons for further dollar strength. There is little news this week, and the French budget crisis has no direct relation to the pound.
Technically, the pound continues forming a downward trend despite the trendline breach. Remember, in a flat market, a trendline breach means little: a flat is a market pause and should not define the trend. Below the Senkou Span B line, the bearish bias remains.
On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, one sell signal formed. At the start of the European session, price broke the 1.3245–1.3248 area and fell nearly to 1.3187. Even if traders closed short positions in the evening, they still could lock in roughly 20–25 pips of profit.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with selling for several months. The net position is negative, even as the long-term uptrend remains intact. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remains high in 2026. The war between the US and Iran formally ended, but a new war inside Yemen has begun. The Federal Reserve's changed stance on monetary policy also supported the dollar, and the uptrend line was breached. However, it was breached under flat conditions, so we do not believe the uptrend is over.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy aims directly and indirectly to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains. According to the latest COT report (dated September 29), the "Non-commercial" group closed 13,100 BUY contracts and 4,500 SELL contracts. Thus, non-commercial traders' net position fell by 8,600 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The Fed's decision and stance have greatly changed the outlook for the US dollar and the market's attitude toward it. We would say a "black swan" has arrived in the market twice this year and supported the dollar when no one expected it. Now a third "black swan" — in the form of the war in Yemen, which could potentially lead to a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait — may arrive.
For October 8 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3301) and Kijun-sen (1.3245) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price has moved 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which you should take into account when determining trading signals.
No important publications or events are scheduled today in the UK, while the US will publish the initial-jobless-claims report, which is of little importance to traders. The pair will most likely remain within the two-week sideways channel today.
Traders can consider the 1.3096–1.3115 area as a target for short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3179–1.3187 area. A rebound from 1.3179–1.3187 would make 1.3245–1.3248 targets for long positions.
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