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The test of 1.1195 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target area at 1.1225.
The euro got a breather not from Europe but from Washington. Late yesterday, demand for the dollar fell immediately after Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterms, and risk assets rallied. The single currency, which had been probing a monthly low in the morning, took advantage. The contrast between morning and evening was telling: there was no reason to rally in the morning, and markets were passively awaiting the European Central Bank minutes; in the evening, one political statement changed everything. That confirms how much dollar sentiment now depends on geopolitics.
Winners are euro buyers who bought the dip; losers are those who held the dollar as a safe-haven. I think the further fate of the recovery depends on whether US yields remain lower and whether talk of strikes against Iran resumes.
Today's fundamental calendar is unlikely to change much. The first half is very light: Italy will publish industrial-production data, and euro-area finance ministers will meet. For a market that saw a sharp dollar weakening yesterday, these items will be background noise. The bullish impulse since last night is fed by other sources — falling US yields and the political remark from Washington.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 below.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1238 (green line), targeting 1.1258. Plan to exit at 1.1258 and sell on a reversal, expecting 30–35 pips from the entry. Expect euro strength only after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: Also buy if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1224 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves toward 1.1238 and 1.1258.
Scenario 1: Sell the euro after it reaches 1.1224 (red line). Target 1.1198, where I plan to exit and immediately buy the reverse, expecting a 20–25 pip countermove. Pressure will return on weak data. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario 2: Also sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1238 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would cap upside and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.1224 and 1.1198.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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