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The GBP/USD currency pair also showed no interesting movement on Friday, which isn't surprising given the lack of drivers. On Friday, the only noteworthy item was the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which came in worse than market expectations but did not create serious problems for the dollar. Market participants continue, at worst, to hold the dollar and, at best, to buy it aggressively. Reports such as industrial production or consumer sentiment are unlikely to change overall market sentiment radically. In the UK, nothing interesting happened last week.
Next week the US will host a speech by Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, which may give the market new formal grounds to buy the US currency. Recall that this summer Warsh spoke two or three times, each time drawing the market's attention to the unacceptability of current inflation levels, which traders interpreted as a direct signal for a rate hike. As we can see, monetary tightening began in September, but the market priced in rate increases several times already during the summer, and in the past month it has done nothing but buy the dollar.
We want to remind you that rhetoric from Bank of England officials has also grown tougher, so the BoE will most likely begin tightening policy in the near future. However, the market pays no attention to this factor — nor to ECB rate increases. Thus, the pound remains in the same situation as the euro, independently of its own fundamentals. We see the current move as speculative and inertia-driven, with no meaningful link to fundamentals or macroeconomics.
This week, BoE chief Andrew Bailey will speak in the UK, and GDP and industrial production reports will be published. You can largely ignore those reports, as the market is unlikely to notice them. We continue to view the 1.3150–1.3780 sideways channel on the weekly timeframe as the key factor for the pound. As long as price stays inside it, the pound retains strong long-term prospects. Also recall that the pound is currently inside three sideways channels at once: weekly, daily and hourly. In all three cases, it has been trading near the lower boundary of the channels in recent weeks. Thus, technically, a rise in the pound should begin soon. However, if the market keeps buying the dollar aggressively while ignoring geopolitics, macroeconomics, and fundamentals, no channels will help the British currency.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 67 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is characterized as "average." On Monday, October 12, we therefore expect movement inside a range bounded by 1.3162 and 1.3296. The higher linear regression channel is once again turning down. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice, which warns of a possible end to the downward trend.
S1 – 1.3184
S2 – 1.3123
S3 – 1.3062
R1 – 1.3245
R2 – 1.3306
R3 – 1.3367
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its illogical downward move. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term appreciation of the US dollar. So far in 2026, the dollar has been favorable due to geopolitics and inflation, which have pushed capital to seek safety and prompted the Fed to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe,, a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 persists within a four-year uptrend, supporting expectations for medium-term pound appreciation. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3428 if price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows bearish trading, with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3163. Be cautious with shorts, as price is at the lower boundary of the long-term sideways channel!
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