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Price tested 1.3233 as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area of 1.3213.
GBP/USD enters Monday against data that, on Friday, turned out to be less bad for the dollar than it might have seemed. Yes, the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index fell to 46.3 in October from 48.1, but the dollar merely paused its rise and did not suffer a serious pullback. Pressure on it was limited. As always, inflation was the reason. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, and long-term expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%, with both measures returning to May highs. For the pound, this means continued dependence on the dollar's course. The market prices in a pause on October 28 and a rate hike on December 9 with roughly 80% probability, which supports the US currency. The pound received some support from lower oil and a pullback in yields after the 30-year auction.
Today, the pair is without data, making the day less predictable than it seems. Attention shifts to speeches by Sarah Breeden and Catherine L. Mann. The first represents the Financial Stability Committee, the second sits on the Rate-Setting Committee, so the market will hear both a view on risks to the banking system and an assessment of monetary policy. If Mann signals that inflation requires caution, GBP/USD may gain an impulse. If her tone is soft, the pair will revert to dollar dependence. By Friday, the dollar is unlikely to stray far from its year high.
For the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the pound today around the 1.3247 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3270 (the thicker green line on the chart). At about 1.3270, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip move from that level). Expect pound gains today as a continuation of Friday's correction. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.3233 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expect moves to the opposite levels 1.3247 and 1.3270.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the pound after it breaks 1.3233 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a swift decline. Sellers' key target is 1.3207, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Bad news would restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to decline from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.3247 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward the opposite levels of 1.3233 and 1.3207.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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