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Gold rose above $4,200 per ounce but then partially gave back its gains. Silver added 0.5% to $61.12, and platinum and palladium also rose. Over the past week, the metal gained 1.3%; by comparison, in the Asian session on October 9 it was around $4,180, and two days earlier about $4,132.
Several factors provided support. On Friday, yields on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell, and on Monday the U.S. debt market is closed for a holiday, so there are no cash-bond trades and futures provide only a preliminary signal. At the same time, oil is weakening, with Brent falling to roughly $103 after Donald Trump's statement about an "energy truce" between Russia and Ukraine, which he made without details.
Additional backing came from demand. Last week, gold ETF holdings rose, and the People's Bank of China accelerated purchases of the metal. This is consistent with the return of Chinese buyers after week-long holidays, which supported prices as early as October 8. But a ceiling remains. Since the start of the war between the US and Iran in late February, gold has fallen by roughly a fifth, because supply disruptions of energy from the Middle East have supported inflationary risks and forced some central banks to tighten policy. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries approached 5.4% last week, the highest level since 2002, so the rebound remains vulnerable.
This week will bring clarity. US inflation is released on Wednesday, and a strong September print will put pressure back on bonds and gold, while a weak print would strengthen the case for a rebound. On Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh will speak at a discussion during the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok; Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack are also expected to speak there. Recall that the market prices a pause on October 28 and a December hike with roughly 80% probability, and any hints of a faster pace could hit the metal hard.
I believe gold will retain a positive bias in the coming sessions as Brent stays around $103 and yields retreat, though a close above $4,249 would require softer inflation data. If US prices come in above forecasts, the metal will return below $4,186 and retest $4,124.
As for gold's current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192. That would set up a target at $4,249, above which a breakout will be difficult. The furthest target is the $4,304 area. If gold falls, bears will try to seize control of $4,124. If they succeed, a breakout of the range would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to a low of $4,062, with a prospect of extending to $4,047.
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