Zůstat 
Obchodní podmínky
Nástroje
The GBP/USD currency pair continued trading within a local sideways channel on the second trading day of the week, clearly visible on the 4-hour timeframe. The channel boundaries are clear: 1.3180 and 1.3280. Price has been inside this channel for more than two weeks, and given the euro's behavior, this looks positive for the pound. It feels as if sterling is waiting for the euro to signal the end of its decline before a powerful rally begins.
We continue to view the US dollar's strengthening over the past month as illogical and speculative. If so, it is not tied to geopolitics, macroeconomics, or fundamentals. It will end when traders begin taking profits on short positions. For now, the pound is stationary while the euro continues to fall. So the moment has not yet arrived.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England continues preparing for its first monetary policy tightening in several years. BoE chief Andrew Bailey has repeatedly hinted that the UK needs to raise the policy rate, as inflation could accelerate to 4% by year-end. One might ask: is the UK central bank deliberately waiting for inflation to rise before acting? Wouldn't it be better to act preemptively?
To be fair, current UK inflation is at a manageable 3.1%, even after recent increases. So the BoE may indeed have no rush. But is that strategy sensible? Why not extinguish inflation at its root?
MPC member Sarah Breeden said this week the central bank continues to assess inflation risks and that a rate hike is becoming more appropriate. Breeden explicitly warned against waiting for second-round effects from energy prices: prolonged delay would entrench higher inflation and make it harder to fight later. "The larger and more prolonged the shock, the greater the risk of significant second-round effects," she said.
Thus the BoE will likely begin tightening policy at the next meeting in November. Interestingly, markets price in four hikes from the BoE, while the Federal Reserve is priced for only two and the European Central Bank for at most three. So the central bank with the lowest inflation is expected to tighten the most — that seems inconsistent. In our view, once the BoE delivers at least two tightenings, it will become clearer what to expect for oil prices and geopolitics. Beyond that horizon, forecasting is pointless.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 61 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is characterized as "average". On Wednesday, October 14, we therefore expect movement inside a range bounded by 1.3185 and 1.3307. The higher linear regression channel is turning down again. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice and also formed a "bullish" divergence, which warns of a possible end to the downtrend.
S1 – 1.3184
S2 – 1.3123
S3 – 1.3062
R1 – 1.3245
R2 – 1.3306
R3 – 1.3367
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its illogical downward move. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term appreciation of the US dollar. The year 2026 so far has been favorable for the dollar due to geopolitics and inflation, which forced capital to seek safety and prompted the Fed to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 persists within a four-year uptrend, supporting expectations for medium-term pound appreciation. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3428 if price is above the moving average. If price is below the moving average, bearish trading is warranted, with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3123. Be cautious with short positions, as price is at the lower boundary of the long-term sideways channel!
Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.
