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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward move on the week's last trading day. Friday's key event was Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's speech, which the market judged to have failed to react strongly to September's acceleration in US inflation. Recall that headline and core inflation surprised to the upside, and the Producer Price Index was even stronger. The market expected Warsh to signal, "we will tighten policy more aggressively," and, unsurprisingly, he did not. We view Warsh's remarks — like the inflation prints — as merely a trigger for the dollar's decline: in short position, a convenient moment for positioning.
On the 4-hour chart, price traded flat for about three weeks, then plunged sharply and later staged a much stronger rally. If you decode those moves, the story looks like this: the market found a balance between the dollar and the pound, then the structure needed to be shaken to start a new trend. A sharp downward squeeze occurred with the single purpose of taking out stop losses and triggering sell orders to gather liquidity for the next leg up.
We have repeatedly noted that price sat near the lower edge of three overlapping sideways channels — weekly, daily, and 4-hour/hourly. That makes the probability of a bounce from this boundary, or a stop-hunt followed by a powerful surge, quite high — which is what we kept warning about over the past week. On the daily chart, you can now see liquidity was taken from the June 24 low and the 1.3160–1.3650 sideways channel remains valid. Therefore, sterling is now headed toward the channel's upper boundary. For the pound to rise now, it needs no fundamental or macroeconomic justification.
The weekly chart also shows the sideways channel in the 1.3100–1.3780 range remains intact. Price likewise moved down to the lower boundary and then reversed higher. As with EUR/USD, the dollar's 2026 advance appears to be a correction, while the underlying uptrend remains intact. Thus we continue to expect the long-term uptrend to resume. At present, we believe technicals dominate price formation. The market is interpreting fundamentals and macroeconomics selectively or ambiguously. Geopolitics supported the dollar in the first half of the year, but that factor has a shelf life — and it has long expired. We witnessed a speculative surge in the US currency, but that cannot last forever. The Bank of England is preparing to tighten monetary policy, and the pound's recent decline suggests the market didn't fully price that in earlier. All of this points to the start of an upward move.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of October 19 is 90 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Monday, October 19, we therefore expect movement inside a range bounded by 1.3235 and 1.3415. The higher linear-regression channel has turned down again. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice and formed a "bullish" divergence, which warns of a possible end to the downtrend.
S1 – 1.3306
S2 – 1.3245
S3 – 1.3184
R1 – 1.3367
R2 – 1.3428
R3 – 1.3489
The GBP/USD pair has begun an upward move that could develop into a longer-term trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. So far, 2026 has been favorable for the dollar because geopolitics and inflation forced capital to seek safety and prompted the Fed to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 persists within a four-year uptrend, supporting expectations for medium-term pound appreciation. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3415 if price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows downside trading, with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3123.
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