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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.82 versus 85.75 early Thursday) after four-week moving average for U.S. jobless claims fell 3,000 to 281,000 in week ended October 18, its lowest level since May 2000. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.277% versus 2.230% late Wednesday) and demand from Japan's importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 7.5% to 16.53) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 1.23% at 1,950.82). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from the oversold zone, negative MACD histogram bars are contracting, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Thursday, five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.45 and the second target at 108.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.05. The pivot point is at 107.65.
Resistance levels:
108.45
108.75
109
Support levels:
107.35
107.05
106.75
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