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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the renewed decline in oil prices, the flows to the safe haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 16.03% to 19.98, S&P 500 closed 1.35% lower at 2,002.16 overnight) on growing market turmoil in Greece as its new government pushed for debt renegotiation with international creditors. USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's exports, the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.724% versus 1.825% late Tuesday) as the Federal Reserve reiterated its pledge to remain "patient" in deciding when to raise interest rates while boosting its assessment of the economy and labor market in its latest policy statement. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.63 versus 93.96 early Wednesday) after the FOMC meeting, demand from the Japanese importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as the MACD is bearish, stochastics is turning bearish.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.50 and the second target at 118.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short position is recommended with the first target at 117.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.80. The pivot point is at 117.55.
Resistance levels:
118.50
118.85
119.35
Support levels:
17.20
116.80
116.50
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