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Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the softer dollar sentiment and lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.948% versus 2.009% late Thursday) after a weaker-than-expected third estimate of the US Q4 GDP annual growth rate of +2.2% (versus forecast +2.4%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports. The USD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected US March UoM final consumer sentiment index of 93.0 (versus forecast 92.0). The USD/JPY downside is also limited by the diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 4.62% to 15.07; S&P 500 closed up 0.24% at 2,061.02 Friday), demand from Japan's importers, and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining. Stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.30 and the second target at 120.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.85. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.30. The pivot point is at 119.25.
Resistance levels:
120.30
120.55
120.85
Support levels:
118.85
118.30
117.85
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