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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair has crossed below both 20- and 50-period (30-minute chart) moving averages and is trading around the lower Bollinger band, calling for an acceleration to the downside. At the same time, the relative strength index is badly directed within the selling area between 50 and 30, suggesting downward momentum for the pair. The intraday outlook is bearish, and the pair is expected to sink further to 102.40 and 102.
Market Commentary:
On Thursday, US stocks continued moving within the recent trading ranges and ended mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 15 points to 18,456, while the S&P 500 added 3 points to 2,170, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 15 points or 0.3% to 5,154. Retailing, consumer stables and technology shares traded higher. Apple Inc climbed another 1.4%.
European stocks turned negative with the STOXX Europe 600 falling 1.0%. Both Germany's DAX and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gave up 0.4%.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to 1.511% from 1.516% on Wednesday. Gold dropped 0.3% to $1,335 an ounce and silver was down 0.9% to $20.15 an ounce. Nymex crude oil slipped further by 1.9% to $41.14 a barrel.
On the Forex front, traders should draw their attention to the crucial Bank of Japan policy decision due later today. Overnight, USD/JPY managed to settle at 105.24 (vs. previous close at 105.39) despite marking a day low at 104.50. This morning, the pair came under pressure again and plunged down to 103.42 before returning to levels around 104.30.
EUR/USD closed 0.2% higher at 1.1074 (day maximum at 1.1118), while GBP/USD fell 0.4% to 1.3163.
Recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.40. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 102. The pivot point stands at 104.60. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 105.90 and the second one at 106.50.
Resistance levels: 105.50, 105.90, 106.50
Support levels: 102.40, 102.00, 101.35
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