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Trading plan for 24/03/2017:
The market is waiting for the vote on the future of the Obamacare system. In the meantime, the dollar regains some strength, which is helping to stabilize the 10-year profitability of more than 2.40 percent. EUR/USD is heading towards 1.0760. The Wall Street has a modest decline, but Asia is dominated by positive sentiment: the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed green. The gold ounce is priced at less than $ 1,250, and the WTI oil barrel is heading toward $48 again.
On Friday 24th of March, the event calendar is busy with the PMI data release during the European session and then Durable Goods Orders data from the US and Consumer Price Index data from Canada. The Obamacare vote in the US parliament will cast a shadow on market volatility all day.
EUR/USD analysis for 24/03/2017:
The set of the PMI Indices from across the Eurozone are scheduled for release at 08:00 am, 08:30 am and 09:00 am (all times GMT). The most important is the PMI reading from Germany, the Eurozone's economic powerhorse. Generally, the market participants do not expect any deterioration in PMI readings all PMI are expected to be released above 50 points level. In this case, any figures worse than expected, especially below 50, will likely make the common currency to drop like a stone.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market still trades below the key technical resistance at the level of 1.0828 in oversold conditions. This is why the immediate bias is bearish and lower prices are expected in this pair today. If the data will be worse than expected the technical support zone between the levels of 1.0713 - 1.0726 will be tested.
US Dollar Index analysis for 24/03/2017:
The looming Obamacare vote and the Durable Goods Orders (scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT) might be the key events to shape the future of the US Dollar. Seasonally adjusted Durable Goods Orders are expected to have increased by 1.5% from the previous month. This masks the inconvenient truth that the year-on-year change is close to zero as since 2013, Durable Goods Orders have mostly oscillated around $230 billion without really going anywhere. There is a way out of this difficult situation, but the President Trump administration must implement the tax cuts and then move toward the infrastructure investment program first.
Let's take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at H4 time frame. Since the FED interest rate hike, the market has been decreasing towards the important pre-FED bottom at the level of 99.21. The market conditions are oversold and the growing bullish divergence is suggesting a corrective rally, but the technical resistance at the level of 100.01 still has not been violated yet. Only a sustained break out above this resistance might spark the trend change, otherwise lower levels will be tested.
USD/CAD analysis for 24/03/2017:
The Consumer Price Index data from Canada, the key gauge for inflation, is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and the market participants expect a decrease from the level of 0.9% to the level of 0.2% on a month-to-month basis. Nevertheless, the yearly inflation should not be affected by this decrease and is still expected at the level of 2.1%. Since inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Canadian Dollar, meaning each Dollar buys fewer goods and services, any data better than expected will make Canadian Dollar to appreciate more.
Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to push the price higher towards the gray rectangle zone, but the price is still trading below the dashed black trend line. If the CPI data will be better than expected, then USD/CAD should dive towards the next technical support at the level of 1.3275. If the CPI data will be worse than expected (especially if they will be negative), then USD/CAD should rally above the dashed trend line towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.3419 and 1.3493.
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