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Global macro overview for 26/07/2017:
The Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement is the most expected event of the week. The market participants do not expect any change in the interest rate as it should be left unchanged at the level of 1.25%. In that situation, much more important will be Rate Statement conclusions and clues regarding further monetary policy.
The overall macro economic trend is still strong enough to prevent the US from falling back into recession, but the pace of the expansion so far is below its counterparts in the Eurozone. For the moment, the economic data generated by the US are strong enough to keep a moderate expansion alive but too weak to inspire high confidence that more rate hikes are near. Another uncertainty is the task of managing expectations down in the wake of last year's election, which inspired hope that Donald Trump would trigger a revival in US economic activity. So far the expectations look a way ahead of themselves as none of the Trump's electoral pledges were accomplished.
Following the recent interest rate hike in June, the FOMC meeting this week should bring a pause in the process of monetary policy normalization. Nevertheless, the post-meeting message will be analyzed for changes in language. Two issues will attract particular attention: inflation and reduction of balance sheet total. Although the confirmation of the start of a reduction in the balance sheet total in September is a positive impulse for USD, fears of inflation will weigh on the expected path of rate hikes, thus exerting pressure on the yield curve and on the USD.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price has made another lower low at the level of 93.63, just below the technical support at the level of 94.07. The market conditions are severely oversold, so there is a good chance of a corrective pull back toward the level of 95.05 is the FOMC statement will match the market participants expectations.
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