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The OECD has revised its global growth forecast for this year down to 2.8% from 3.4%, while leaving its 2027 projection unchanged at 3.1%. The organization highlighted that the duration and scale of the conflict in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, yet its economic repercussions are likely to persist. This reflects the time needed—potentially many months—to repair damaged infrastructure, reopen transport corridors, and normalize global supply chains.
Growth in North America and Europe is expected to slow modestly before a tentative recovery sets in. In the United States, GDP growth is projected to ease to 2.0% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Canada is forecast to dip to 1.2% before rebounding to 1.7%, while Mexico is seen strengthening to 1.9% by 2027. In the United Kingdom, growth is projected to edge up from 0.9% to 1.1%. China’s expansion is expected to moderate gradually, slowing to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.
The OECD also warned that higher energy prices, ongoing supply constraints, tighter financial conditions, and weaker business and consumer confidence will weigh on global activity. Inflation pressures are expected to intensify, with price growth projected to rise by about 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and 1.3 percentage points in 2027.
