27.07.202613:20:36UTC+00Treasury Yields Retreat

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined to 4.65% on Monday, retracing from last week’s peak—the highest level since January 2025—supported by a pullback in oil prices. The US halted its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran late on Friday, although no official announcement was issued. In response, Tehran suspended its retaliatory military actions and entered talks with Oman on safeguarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. These developments eased fears of further supply disruptions and a renewed inflationary surge, leading investors to pare back expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Markets are also focused on the Fed’s monetary policy decision later this week. The central bank is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, though futures currently imply about a 33% probability of a rate hike. Looking further ahead, a September increase remains the base case, with traders pricing in nearly an 80% chance of such a move.