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Today, the focus of markets will be the publication of data on employment in the United States, which may have a direct impact on the Fed's decision on rates at the July meeting of the regulator on the 31st.
According to the consensus forecast, the US economy received 160,000 new jobs in June, while the May value of only 75,000 was noticeably lower. It is also assumed that the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 3.6%.
Now, let's consider the likely reaction of the market and the Fed to this data. It can be assumed that if the value of the number of new jobs turns out to be higher and significantly higher than the forecast, then this will lead to a local appreciation of the dollar and may restrain the Fed in the decision to lower. As markets currently assume, there is a probability of lowering interest rates at a regulator meeting at the end of the month. At the same time, a significantly lower number of new jobs will lead to a weakening of the US currency and will be a strong argument for doubting Fed members in their decision to lower the key interest rate by at least 0.25%. We also add that the output value in the expected area will still be viewed by the market as a signal for lowering rates.
We draw your attention to the fact that from the beginning of this year, the American Central Bank took a wait-and-see attitude, watching the dynamics of the national economy and the situation in the global economy. Of course, its focus has since been on the picture of the negotiation process between Washington and Beijing trade.
In the last two or three months, the US economy began to give steady signals of a slowdown, indicating that the economic growth based on lending is running out of steam. In our opinion, it should force the Central Bank to begin a cycle of lowering interest rates, regardless of the results of trade negotiations between US and China.
Another important factor in favor of lowering rates this year is the start of the presidential election campaign. Donald Trump, who wants to be re-elected as president, explicitly calls on the Fed to begin lowering rates. For this, he is ready to introduce two new people to the Fed council who have dovish views on monetary policy.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair crosses the level of 1.1275. It may continue to fall to the lower boundary of the short-term uptrend of 1.1250.
The NZD/USD pair is trading above the level of 0.6665. The intersection of this mark can lead to a local price decrease to 0.6645.
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