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Traders continue to buy US dollars amid the panic that is sparking due to the spread of the coronavirus. The euro is already breaking through the mark of 1.0900, and the pound has completely collapsed to the lows of 1985 in the area of 1.1800. And apparently, no one is going to stop. The sharp rejection of risky assets is associated with fears of a slowdown in overall global economic growth.
Today, Deutsche Bank published its forecast, which revised its attitude to global GDP for the worse. According to economists, the economic activity of developed countries may fall sharply to the level of the end of World War II. However, the measures and rapid reaction of central banks will smooth the situation, which will return the economies of the countries to the path of growth in the 2nd half of the year. Global GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2020. At the same time, the US GDP will fall by 1.0%, and the eurozone GDP will fall immediately by 2.9%.
Pressure on the euro is also related to the discord in the positions of the European Central Bank's leaders. There has long been talk in the market that the regulator is not taking sufficient measures to support the economy in the face of the rapid spread of the coronavirus, which only strengthens the divergence of views in the ECB's top management. All this will not allow us to react properly to the impending economic crisis. However, in today's statement, the ECB's governing council indicated that all members are unanimous in their intention to strengthen stimulus measures if the situation requires it.
Today, a report on inflation in the eurozone was released, which remained unchanged in February this year and coincided with the forecasts of economists. Although no one is thinking much about this indicator at the moment, it will be important in the future when making a decision to change interest rates. According to data, the consumer price index (CPI) of the eurozone in February this year increased by 0.2% compared to January and remained unchanged compared to February 2019 at 1.2%, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. The core consumer price index, which does not take into account volatile categories of goods, increased by 0.4% in February, and by 1.2% per annum. The index of consumer prices of the eurozone excluding tobacco products edged up only 0.2%. Given that the collapse in oil prices began in March this year, it is likely that the inflation figures for this period will undergo significant changes. The eurozone's foreign trade surplus in January this year was 1.3 billion euros, compared to 0.6 billion euros in January 2019.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bears continue to drown the euro and get rid of risky assets. A break in the support of 1.0900 will lead to a further sale of the trading instrument to a minimum of 1.0840 and 1.0800. The area of 1.0500 will be a more distant reference point for the deterioration of the economic situation in the Euroregion.
GBPUSD
The British pound fell into the abyss after today's news that negotiations between the EU and the UK will be postponed indefinitely until the situation with the coronavirus is resolved. The pound has already reached the levels of 1985. The current refusal to negotiate clearly makes it clear that no decision on the Brexit trade agreement will be found before the end of this year, which only increases the risk of a disorderly exit.
Statements by the new Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, that there is a possibility that the Central Bank will pay direct benefits to British households and companies further collapsed the pound. Although Bailey did not say that such a decision has already been made, he did not rule out support in this direction. Also, the new head of the Bank of England advised companies to seek help from the government before firing their employees.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, there are no purchases in question now. It is best to wait for the formation of larger support levels around 1.1800, or 1.1750 and 1.1700, and only then take any action. Bears will be active at any sufficient upward correction for the pound, so it is better to follow the trend.
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