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The return of financial markets to normal following the trade wars and the pandemic-related recession has naturally brought monetary policy back into the spotlight for investors. And even though the Fed assures investors that it intends to keep its foot on the brake for a long time, investors are worried that the time will come when it will be necessary to step on the gas very sharply - to abandon QE and raise the federal funds rate. As a result, Treasury yields and the US dollar are growing, while the rest of the world's currencies are forced to go on the defensive.
One of the most affected G10 currencies may be the Japanese yen. The yen is under a double blow: on the one hand, vaccination and victory over COVID-19 will contribute to the rapid development of global GDP, which forces investors to dump safe-haven assets; on the other hand, the differential between the US and Japanese bond yields is growing, the attractiveness of US securities is increasing, and money is starting to flow from Asia to the US.
Obviously, the strong data from Japan only exacerbate the situation. The first growth in industrial production in the last three months, a slower decline in retail sales than predicted by Bloomberg experts, and the fastest pickup in the manufacturing sector in two years indicate a gradual recovery in GDP.
Dynamics of industrial production in Japan
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, so positive shifts within the country increase the global risk appetite and contribute to the continuation of the rally in US bond yields. As for their local counterparts, according to Bloomberg, BoJ will not allow excessive growth of rates in the Japanese debt market.
Currently, the policy of the Bank of Japan assumes the use of a trading range of +/-0.2%, beyond which the regulator does not allow the yield of 10-year bonds to go. And while there are rumors in the market that BoJ will expand the range to +/-0.3% following a massive monetary policy review scheduled for March 19, Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues would not want to be told that it was forced by the market.
The first week of March will be very busy for USD/JPY. Releases of data on American business activity, speeches by representatives of the Fed, and the publication of statistics on the US labor market in February will certainly affect the balance of power in the debt market. Further expansion of the differential between the yields of the US and Japanese bonds will contribute to the continued rally in the dollar against the yen.
Technically, the USD/JPY daily chart shows the formation of three rising highs - the Three Indian pattern. To activate it, the quotes must fall below the minimum of bar #2, that is, below the support at 105.8-105.85. Until this happens, the bulls continue to control the market situation. At the same time, it makes sense to use rebounds from pivot levels at 106.4 and 106.25 to form long positions with targets at 107.35 and 107.75.
USD/JPY, daily chart
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