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Bitcoin is falling today and this could be a harbinger of future growth. But why and how soon, we will consider below.
According to analytical company Santiment, bitcoin whales continue to increase their position volume. Million-level addresses containing between 100 and 10,000 BTC have increased their coins by 90,000 bitcoins over the past 25 days.
Bitcoin holdings in this category of big players hit a 7-month high, pushing total reserves to 9.11 million. It is worth noting that these addresses store about 50% of the total amount of bitcoins worth $370 billion.
At the same time, data from Glassnode show that long-term holders of the main cryptocurrency continue to firmly hold their bitcoin reserves. This includes, among other things, those buyers who purchased BTC 155 days before or before January 10, 2021. Thus, the rate of redemption of coins increased during this time period.
Prior to this, it was observed that the owners of smaller bitcoin wallets, 100-1000 BTC each, also bought more BTC at the time the price fell. The purchases took almost a month.
Also, the bitcoin miner churn index fell. Fresh data provided by the research firm Glassnode shows that they have also been keeping the mined bitcoins with them lately, probably counting on a further rise in its price.
It is worth noting that the 25 days cited in the study began around May 23, when Bitcoin retreated from lows in the $31,000 area and moved to consolidate in a wide range of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24. This sideways trend is a technical confirmation of the accumulation, and the data on the growth in the number of bitcoins on the addresses of whales is another argument in favor of this assumption. I wrote about what is strong and why this lateral is important in the previous review.
Now we look locally. Yesterday, the BTC/USD trading corridor was between support at 38,610.88 and resistance at 41,980.24. So far, today's fall looks technical but uncertain. Two scenarios are possible: a rebound from the level of 38,610.88 (red dotted line) and its confirmation as a support. In this case, there is a possibility of an attempt to test the strength of 41,980.24 in the near future.
If the horizontal line 38,610.88 (red dotted line) is broken and the price consolidates below it, a decrease, maybe even progressive, to the lower border of the sideways 28,392.99 - 41,980.24 is possible, where whales will buy out bitcoin again.
Possible scenarios are marked on the chart for clarity. The bullish scenario of the exit from the consolidation remains unchanged - the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 41,980.24.
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