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The USD/CHF pair rallied right after the SNB Policy Rate publication. In the short term, the currency pair continued to move sideways after the FOMC, even though the FED increased the Federal Funds Rate from 2.50% to 3.25%. Now, the USD/CHF pair exploded after the Swiss National Bank increased the SNB Policy Rate from -0.25% to 0.50% as expected.
Later, the BOE could bring more volatility into the markets. The Official Bank Rate is expected to be increased from 1.75% to 2.25%. Furthermore, the US Unemployment Claims are expected at 220K last week, while the Current Account and CB Leading Index could come in better compared to the previous reporting period.
From the technical point of view, USD/CHF registered a false breakdown with great separation below 0.9627, signaling strong upside pressure. As you can see on the H1 chart, the price registered an aggressive breakout above 0.9695 static resistance.
It has found resistance above the weekly R2 (0.9780) which represented an upside obstacle. Now, it has slipped below this key level and under the warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork. These are seen as resistance levels.
Coming back and stabilizing above the warning line (wl1) and above the R2 (0.9780) could signal an upside continuation. Personally, I want to see a strong consolidation above the R2 before going long. A new higher high could bring long opportunities.
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