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Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at around 1,649, bouncing slightly having bottomed out at 1,639. It is currently trading below the 21 SMA (1,668) and below the 5/8 Murray (1,656).
The outlook could remain negative for XAU/USD. In case there is a pullback to the top of the downtrend channel and failure to break, it will be a clear signal to sell with the target at 4/8 Murray located at 1,625.
The eagle indicator is approaching a key oversold zone (10-5 points). It is likely that there will still be a bearish sequence in gold in the coming days until it reaches oversold levels.
Elevated inflation is likely to keep the Fed in a tightening cycle and this is likely to put pressure on gold as rising interest rates should reinforce the US dollar's strength.
A sharp break below 1,639 could quickly drop gold towards the 1,625 support. Around this area, we could expect a technical bounce which could once again provide bullish momentum.
On the other hand, a daily close above the 21 SMA and a break of the downtrend channel around 1,670 could mean a rally for gold and it could reach 6/8 Murray at 1,687 and even rally towards the psychological level zone of 1,700 around 7/8 Murray (1,718).
According to the 4-hour chart, gold maintains a downtrend channel formed since September 30. This channel is still intact. In case there is a pullback towards the 1,668 area, it is likely to be considered an opportunity to continue selling, with targets at 1,635 and 1,625 (4/8).
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