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Central bank policies play a key role on the outlook of cryptocurrencies in 2022. It will determine whether Bitcoin will follow its 60% growth in 2021 with another gain this year.
Crypto proponents believe that the more companies and consumers delve deeper into the metaverse and NFTs, the more growth will occur regardless of macroeconomic forces. A good example of this is when an NFT artwork sold for $ 69.3 million last year, and when a group of loosely organized crypto investors battled billionaire Ken Griffin in an auction for a copy of the US Constitution.
In any case, as of Monday, Bitcoin was trading 0.5% higher, at $ 47,250.
"We are bullish Bitcoin long-term, based on our long-term trend-following gauges," said Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. "We assume the long-term uptrend will maintain itself and a more decisive breakout to new highs would allow for an impressive measured-move projection of approximately $90,000. For now, a corrective phase still has a hold, although there are potential signs of short-term downside exhaustion," she added.
Meanwhile, Antoni Trenchev of Nexo noted: "The No. 1 influencing factor for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in 2022 is central bank policy. Cheap money is here to stay which has huge implications for crypto, as the Fed doesn't have the stomach or backbone to withstand a 10%-20% collapse in the stock market, along with an adverse reaction in the bond market."
Trenchev sees a volatile 2022, but predicts that Bitcoin will hit $ 100,000 by the end of June.
"Although I expect the speculative zeal to continue in the crypto space, it, like bloated technology valuations, faces a much more challenging environment in 2022. The primary reason is the start of interest-rate normalization by the Federal Reserve but with other major central banks likely to follow as well. That will challenge the raison d'etre that crypto is an alternative to fiat money," said Oanda analyst Jeffrey Halley.
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