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Red lines- bearish channel
USDJPY is trading around 138.37 close to making new lower lows. Price has been making lower lows and lower highs over the last few weeks. Our 140 pull back target has been reached and we are now in the process of completing a 5 wave impulsive decline from its all time highs. USDJPY as can be seen above in the 4hour chart is in the process of completing its 5th wave. The most probable scenario is for this downward move to be the final wave of the decline target started from 151.70. A 5 wave decline is impulsive which implies that after a corrective move (in this case a bounce higher), we should expect at least one more downward move to new lows. Short-term target for completing wave 5 is the lower channel boundary at 134-135 area. However if wave 5 is equal to wave 1, we should see the end of wave 5 sooner at 136-136.20. 5th waves lure many traders who already missed the opportunity. 5th waves are near the end of the trend. Traders need to be patient and see if a new low in price is followed by a new low in the RSI and also focus on the structure of the 5th wave. Currently we are most probably on the 3rd wave of the 5th. More time is needed for price to unfold its trend and we will get a clearer picture on what to expect.
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