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The dollar completely lost all of the previous day's gains. And if during the European trading session the weakening of the US currency was due to a technical rebound, then after the opening of the US session, macroeconomic statistics came into play. Employment was expected to grow by 205,000. This is quite enough to maintain the stability of the labor market. However, it turned out that it increased by only 128,000. And this already threatens to increase unemployment. For the United States, with its population and growth rate, this is too little growth in employment. And the release of such data in anticipation of the report of the United States Department of Labor, of course, had a negative impact on the dollar's positions.
Employment change (United States):
However, the dollar retains upside potential. And significant growth. Based on the forecasts for the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, then a steady growth of the US currency seems inevitable. Lowering the unemployment rate from 3.6% to 3.5% will in itself have a beneficial effect. In addition, 320,000 new jobs should be created outside of agriculture. This is much more than is necessary to maintain the stability of the labor market. To do this, a little more than 200,000 new jobs per month should be created in the United States. So the expectations regarding the content of the report are clearly extremely optimistic.
Unemployment rate (United States):
After a short stop, the GBPUSD pair rebounded from the support level of 1.2500, indicating its false breakout. The rebound was accompanied by a high interest in long positions, which made it possible for bulls to return to the area of 1.2570. In fact, we once again saw a signal about the preservation of the corrective move on the market.
The RSI H4 indicator is moving along the middle line of 50, which indicates the characteristic uncertainty in the market. In fact, the recent upward and downward momentum has become confusing. RSI D1 is also moving around the middle line, which confirms the signal of multidirectional trading interest.
The MA moving lines on Alligator H4 have a lot of interlacing, which is a sign of multidirectional trading interest. Alligator D1 has a crossover between the MA lines indicating a stop.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios at once:
The first one comes from the preservation of rising interest in the market, where keeping the price above 1.2600 can return the quote to the resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720.
The second scenario considers the possibility of completing a corrective move, where keeping the price below 1.2530 will lead to another attempt to break through the support level of 1.2500. The largest increase in the volume of short positions will occur after the price stays below 1.2450, which will confirm the signal about the completion of the correction.
Comprehensive indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday due to the recent upward momentum. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal due to a partial change in trading interests.
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