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Markets are currently focused on the US CPI report for June, which will be released on Wednesday, July 13.
Forecasts show that inflation will continue to grow, where headline inflation, which includes changes in the cost of food and energy, will increase by 1.4% month-over-month and by 8.7% year-over-year.
Seeing that prices have accelerated even more, inflation has every chance of reaching 8.7%. Statistics Austria reported that in addition to the increase in fuel and heating oil prices, there has also been significant growth in restaurant and food prices.
If CPI turns out as expected, the Fed will most likely make another 75 basis point rate hike at the FOMC meeting later this month, especially given last week's employment report. They may also announce a fourth increase this year. The central bank began raising rates last March, the first time since 2018. The increase back then was 25 basis points, followed by a 50 bp increase in May and a 75 bp increase in June.
The CME FedWatch tool sees the same scenario, indicating a 93% chance that the Fed will raise rates again by 75 basis points this month. This outlook weighs heavily on US equities, pushing the USD index up and lowering gold prices.
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