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Early in the American Session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,907.25 in the minutes before the US inflation data is released. We don't expect any deviation in the US CPI from the forecast. We could expect a technical correction to occur in the next few hours as gold is overbought.
Since March 8, when gold was trading at 1,808 and until March 13, the instrument gained more than $100 reaching a high of 1,914.50. This represents a fast recovery and therefore, a technical correction of 50% is foreseen.
As the XAU/USD pair is trading below 1,815. the metal is likely to make a technical correction and fall towards the area of 4/8 Murray located at 1,875. Ultimately, the price could fall towards the 21 SMA at 1,865.
10-year US Treasury yields are making minor gains around 3.59% after rebounding from a one-month low of 3.42%. This could be a factor that keeps gold under bearish pressure, so we could expect a strong technical correction in the coming days.
In case gold consolidates below 5/8 Murray (1,906), we could expect it to fall and cover the gap left at the opening of trade this week at about 1,867.30. Besides, we could expect a nice technical bounce around 1,865 (21 SMA).
The eagle indicator reached the 95-point zone which represents the extremely overbought market. Therefore, gold is projected to make a significant correction in the next few hours and can reach the zone of 1,875 (4/8) or even 1,865 (21 SMA).
Conversely, in case gold returns and trades above 1,915. we should avoid selling and could expect the price to reach 6/8 Murray at 1,937.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,912. If there is a break below 5/8 Murray around 1,906, there will be a signal to sell with targets at 1,890, 1,875, and until the close of the GAP at 1,867.30.
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