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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
Euro tested 0.9998 at the time when the MACD was far below zero, which limited the downside potential of the pair. Sometime later, it tested the level again, but this time the MACD line was above zero, so the upside potential was limited. This happened after the test of 1.0043.
Although the sharp rise in the eurozone consumer price index came as no surprise, it hurt euro's upward outlook in the morning. Then, in the afternoon, dollar was affected by weak employment data from ADP, which suggested that the rate hikes implemented by the Fed hurt the labor market.
Today, a number of reports are scheduled to be released, namely the volume of retail trade in Germany, index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and change in the unemployment rate of the eurozone. Good figures will allow buyers to try updating the weekly highs. But in the afternoon, the focus will shift to the data on US jobless claims, ISM manufacturing index and speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0026 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0081. A rally will occur if statistics in the Euro area exceed expectations.
Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0005, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0026 and 1.0081.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0005 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9959. Pressure will return if the Euro area releases weak economic statistics. The failure of buyers to update yesterday's highs will also end the upward correction.
Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0026, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0005 and 0.9959.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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