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Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 2,032.69 above the 21 SMA and within an uptrend channel formed since May 4.
Yesterday in the American session, after the inflation data from the United States, gold printed a high of 2,048.20 and then made a strong correction reaching a low of 2,021.54. Now we're watching a slight technical bounce that could be a sign of a further uptrend but the metal could find strong resistance around 2,048.
Following the release of the inflation figures, the US Dollar Index (USDX) weakened and US Treasury yields plummeted. The 10-year bond saw a fall to 3.42%, which favored gold for a jump to 2,048.
In case gold consolidates below 2,025 in the next few hours, we could expect a break in the uptrend channel and a downward acceleration so that the price could drop to the psychological level of $2,000 and finally, to the 200 EMA located at 1,991.
Conversely, if gold continues to consolidate above the 21 SMA, we could expect it to rise towards the 2,048 area. In case gold is rejected from this area, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell.
Only a daily close above 2,050 could mean the resumption of the uptrend and gold could reach 2,062 (+1/8 Murray), a level that coincides with the top of the uptrend channel formed since April 13.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for the instrument to continue its bounce until it hits strong resistance at 2,048 to sell or wait for a break below the 21 SMA (2028) to sell with targets at 1,991. The eagle indicator is approaching the overbought zone which is a sign that a technical correction could occur in the coming days.
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