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Early in the American session, gold is trading around 1,960.72, below the 21 SMA, and 200 EMA. We can see that the XAU/USD pair is located inside a downtrend channel formed since early May. Now, the price is approaching a key support level at about 1,950.
In the next few hours, we could expect a slight technical bounce towards the area of 1,968 (21 SMA) which could be seen as a signal to sell with targets at 7/8 Murray around 1,937 or towards the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1,930.
Gold remains under strong downward pressure as recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed expectations that the US Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates.
This fundamental outlook gave a boost to Treasury yields. The 10-year one reached the maximum level of 3.7630%. Gold is inversely correlated with this instrument. Therefore, if there is a correction in bonds, a technical rebound could occur for gold and this could be seen as an opportunity to buy.
Therefore, in the next few hours, we expect the instrument to rebound from current price levels and it could reach the 21 SMA located at 1,968. If it fails to break, we could sell with targets at 1,950 and 1,937.
In the event that bullish force prevails and gold breaks and consolidates above 1,970, this could be a clear sign of a recovery and we could expect the price to reach the 200 EMA located at 1,989. A daily trade close above 1,990 could be a sign of a change in trend and gold could return to $2,000. Finally, it could reach +1/8 Murray located at 2,062.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 1,970 with targets at 1,937. The Eagle indicator is in the oversold zone which is likely to continue the bearish pressure and any technical bounce has been seen as a signal to sell.
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