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Despite the fact that the data on industrial production in Europe turned out to be noticeably better than forecasts, the market has not budged. Largely due to the fact that the dollar is already heavily oversold, and just good data on Europe, as it was during the past week, is clearly not enough for investors to continue buying the euro with the pound. This means that any weak data from the eurozone can easily trigger the start of a full-scale correction. Like today, such data will be released. The unemployment rate in the UK could rise from 3.5% to 3.6%. Although the increase in unemployment is insignificant, this will be enough for a noticeable strengthening of the dollar, and, accordingly, a decline in the pound.
Unemployment Rate (UK):
The GBPUSD currency pair slowed down the construction of an inertial move around the value of 1.1850. As a result, there was a rollback to the previously passed level of 1.1750, relative to which there was stagnation.
The RSI H4 technical instrument left the overbought zone during the price pullback. However, it is worth noting that the RSI is still in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates the prevailing bullish mood among market participants.
The MA moving lines on Alligator H4 and D1 are directed upwards, this signal corresponds to the general mood of traders for the GBPUSD pair.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, stagnation along the 1.1750 level can serve as a process of accumulating trading forces, which will eventually lead to new speculative price jumps.
The upward scenario will be relevant if the price stays above the 1.1850 mark in a four-hour period. This step will lead to a restart of the momentum and an increase in the volume of long positions.
The downward scenario will become relevant if the price stays below 1.1680 in a four-hour period. In this case, a reverse course is possible in the direction of the area where trading forces interact at 1.1410/1.1525.
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