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Euro rose on Tuesday because of rumors that the ECB is seriously considering how to get rid of the €5 trillion bond balance sheet as quickly as possible. However, this did not affect the downward correction that is happening in the market.
Currently, the gap between German and Italian debt yields is narrowing, which could prompt politicians to announce the start of quantitative easing as early as next week. However, they could abandon it just as quickly if instability recurs. This is the challenge that the ECB is facing as there are expected to present a strategy to reduce the balance sheet, as well as an interest rate hike of 50 basis points next week. If that happens, the central bank could focus on getting the inflation shock under control next year.
The US Federal Reserve is also hinting with all its might at easing aggression, so investors expect the global cycle of policy tightening to slow down soon. However, it is clear that the ECB has to gauge risks with regard to the uncertain economic outlook, the dynamics of rate hikes and the need for governments to borrow. The shock to the UK market this year was very instructive, so officials are gradually rallying around the idea of launching QT to minimize investor fears. Another concern is how much more debt will have to be issued by governments. The ECB has warned that excessive support could cause additional rate hikes.
In terms of the forex market, a breakout above 1.0480 in EUR/USD will spur a price increase to
1.0530 and 1.0560. Meanwhile, a decline below 1.0440 will push the pair to 1.0390 and 1.0330.
As for GBP/USD, traders need to push the quote above 1.2150 in order for the pair to reach 1.2200 and 1.2265. But if pressure returns and sellers regain control of 1.2070, pound will collapse to 1.2000 and 1.1955.
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