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Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD
The test of 1.0755 occurred when the MACD line was already far from zero, so the upside potential was limited. Sometime later, there was another test, but this time it was at 1.0789 and the market signal was to sell. It resulted in a price decrease of over 50 pips.
Eurozone's growth rate in Q4 remained unchanged, partly helping euro yesterday morning. However, CPI data in the US turned out to be higher than expected, so dollar strengthened during the US session.
A number of reports on the European economy are scheduled for today, which are unlikely to help euro much. But more interesting is the speech of ECB chief President Christine Lagarde as she will relay her views on the future of the monetary policy. In the afternoon, a rather serious volatility burst is likely to happen due to the US retail sales data for January. A higher-than-forecasted figure is likely to prompt a further rise in dollar and a drop in euro. Reports on the Empire Manufacturing index and the change in industrial production will be of little interest.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0745 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0789. Growth will occur if there is a sharp decline in the US retail sales this January. However, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0711, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0745 and 1.0789.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0711 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0667. Pressure will return if data on the Euro area disappoints and if Lagarde's statement is dovish. However, make sure that when selling, the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0745, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0711 and 1.0667.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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