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For the past two months, Bitcoin has been trading within a descending channel, indicating a bearish correction on the 24-hour time frame. There is a clear downtrend with no signs of abating soon. Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped by $1,500, grew by the same amount, and then fell again today. This increased volatility stems from the lawsuits filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Binance and Coinbase. The US authorities appear to be taking a hard line with the cryptocurrency market. Both exchanges are significant market players, and the unfortunate experience of FTX – who falsified reports, took out massive loans, and failed to pay back their investors and customers – is still fresh. Nobody really knows what is going on at Binance, especially as the SEC accuses the exchange of artificially inflating trade volumes.
In the coming days, we may witness more fluctuations in Bitcoin's value. Given the strength of the current fundamental background, Bitcoin has more to lose. Meanwhile, Glassnode reported that in just one day, 10,500 Bitcoins were withdrawn from Binance. There have only been 11 instances where this figure was higher. This suggests that investors fear Binance could follow FTX's steps.
However, economists note that the current outflow from the exchange does not significantly impact its balance, which remains near its highest value. Notably, no one knows how the situation with Binance and Coinbase will unfold. The SEC has leveled accusations, and a legal investigation will follow. If the exchanges are found guilty, they could face heavy fines. This scenario is probably the best outcome at this point. One way or another, their reputation has been tarnished, despite the denials of guilt by CEO Changpeng Zhao. Based on our analysis, Bitcoin may continue its correction. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's future for the coming months will be decided.
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC is trading within a downward channel. One could sell Bitcoin on each rebound from $29,750 with the target at $25,211. As for now, another target can be added at $24,350. Long positions can be considered only after forming strong buy signals on the 24-hour time frame or consolidating above the downward channel on the 4-hour timeframe. Neither of these conditions is met yet. Bitcoin has already resumed its fall and may continue to decrease in the near term.
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