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Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.1715, retreating after reaching a new high at 1.1753. This level coincided with the top of the uptrend channel, suggesting that the euro may be struggling to continue rising.
We believe that the euro will undergo a strong technical correction in the coming days, reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1.1540, or EURUSD could even reach the important support around the 6/8 Murray level at 1.1474.
According to the H4 chart, we see that the euro has been consolidating for the past few days around the 1.1718 level, which coincides with the 8/8 Murray level. The euro could be waiting for important data releases next week, such as the US employment data, to break out of the consolidation.
If the euro continues to rise, we should expect consolidation above 1.1720. It could even break the uptrend channel, potentially reaching the +1/8 Murray level at 1.1840.
Consolidation below the 21 SMA at 1.1658 could be the start of a trend reversal, and we expect EUR/USD to reach the 200 EMA around 1.1450 during a reversal.
Our outlook for the euro remains negative, as technically, we observe accumulation in the 1.1730 area, which shows signs of exhaustion. Therefore, a technical correction could occur in the coming days.
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