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Today, after the release of weaker GDP data from Australia, the Australian dollar has attracted active selling. Additionally, growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), supported by this data, make a recovery in the Australian dollar unlikely in the near term.
Furthermore, concerns over the fragile economic recovery in China, looming tariffs under US President-elect Donald Trump, and fears of a trade war are further limiting the growth of the Australian dollar. Traders must wait for signals about future rate cuts in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and key economic reports from the US to observe concrete market movements and make new trades.
From a technical perspective, weakness below the 0.6440-0.6435 level indicates a breakout from the short-term trading range held over the past two weeks. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in negative territory and far from the oversold zone. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is downward, supporting the prospects for further decline. The likelihood of spot prices weakening below the critical level of 0.6400 and retesting the yearly low at 0.6350-0.6345, which was last seen in August, is increasing.
Conversely, any significant recovery above the key psychological level at 0.6500 will face strong resistance, remaining capped in the supply zone around 0.6535. Sustained momentum beyond this point could trigger a short-covering rally, allowing the AUD/USD pair to return to the critical round number at 0.6600 as it approaches the convergence of the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA). If these levels are decisively breached, the short-term trend may favor bullish sentiment.
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