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The price test at 152.96 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. However, this only resulted in a 25-pip increase before pressure on the pair returned.
Despite strong U.S. labor market data that exceeded economists' forecasts, it failed to support the dollar's growth yesterday. As many know, the USD/JPY pair often reacts unpredictably to economic data. Currently, the pair remains in a state of uncertainty, leading to further declines as an increasing number of economists and traders speculate on a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rates. The absence of Japanese economic data also contributes to this situation, while weak demand for the U.S. dollar allows the yen to remain strong. However, the lower the pair drops under these conditions, the stronger the demand is likely to be if there is any shift in the White House's trade tariff policies.
For intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches 152.85 (green line on the chart) with a target of 153.35 (thicker green line). At 153.35, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback. The best buying opportunities arise during corrections and significant drawdowns in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 152.42 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Expected growth targets are 152.85 and 153.35.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the break of 152.42 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 151.94, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20-25 pip pullback. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to persist today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 152.85 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expected targets for a decline are 152.42 and 151.94.
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