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The price test at 1.0367 in the first half of the day coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
The second half of the day is packed with events. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, core inflation figures, and speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC member Raphael Bostic are scheduled. Market attention will be focused on the potential reaction of the Federal Reserve.
If inflation data shows persistent growth, the Fed is likely to take a wait-and-see approach, keeping interest rates unchanged. This will strengthen the dollar, as investors will consider the U.S. currency more attractive due to stable or potentially rising interest rates.
On the other hand, a decline in inflation figures could trigger speculation about monetary policy easing, putting pressure on the dollar. In this case, EUR/USD would gain support, leading to renewed interest in buying the euro against the dollar.
Thus, January inflation data will be a key driver of short-term currency market movements. Traders should closely monitor the news and be prepared for increased volatility in the coming days.
For my intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenario #1, even considering the MACD indicator readings, as I expect a strong directional move.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Buying the euro today is possible at 1.0384 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0415. At 1.0415, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point retracement. A weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report would support this bullish scenario.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if 1.0365 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward 1.0384 and 1.0415 is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Selling the euro is planned after reaching 1.0365 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0331, where I plan to exit shorts and enter long positions immediately (expecting a 20-25 point retracement). Bearish pressure on the pair could return at any moment.
Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if 1.0384 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.0365 and 1.0331 is expected.
Chart Breakdown
Important Notes for Beginner Traders
Be cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before high-impact fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. Always use stop-loss orders. Trading without stop-losses can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper risk management.
Follow a structured trading plan. As demonstrated above, random decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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