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The 1.2453 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. However, a strong upward movement did not materialize, and the pair remained within the sideways channel.
It appears that the main battle will take place in the 1.2430–1.2460 range. A breakout above 1.2460 would pave the way for 1.2500, where profit-taking may occur. Conversely, a drop below 1.2420 could trigger a wave of sell-offs, aiming to test 1.2380. However, such movements are likely only if U.S. inflation data significantly diverges from forecasts.
If the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises, pressure on the pair will return. Conversely, a sharp slowdown in price growth would boost demand for the pound and weaken the dollar. The CPI report will be a key driver for GBP/USD in the near term.
Investors will closely monitor the inflation figures to assess the likelihood of further Federal Reserve actions. Higher-than-expected inflation will likely reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring GBP/USD. However, if inflation comes in below expectations or remains stable, it will weaken the dollar, giving GBP/USD an upward push. In this scenario, Powell's comments from yesterday will lose relevance, and the market will shift its focus toward the potential for earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
For intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1, despite the MACD readings, as I expect a strong directional move.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Buying the pound today is planned at 1.2453 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2495. At 1.2495, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point retracement. A weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report will support this bullish scenario.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if 1.2433 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.2453 and 1.2495 is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Selling the pound is planned after breaking below 1.2433 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.2384, where I will exit shorts and enter longs immediately (expecting a 20-25 point retracement). Bearish pressure may strengthen after a strong CPI report.
Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if 1.2453 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.2433 and 1.2384 is expected.
Chart Breakdown
Important Notes for Beginner Traders
Be cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before high-impact fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. Always use stop-loss orders. Trading without stop-losses can quickly deplete your account, especially when trading large volumes without proper risk management.
Follow a structured trading plan. As demonstrated above, random decision-making based on short-term market fluctuations is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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