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Futures on U.S. stock indices are trading within a narrow range as traders eagerly await the release of key U.S. inflation data, which will provide insights into the potential timeline for interest rate cuts this year. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, while NASDAQ futures have declined by 0.2%. Meanwhile, European indices received a boost from strong corporate earnings. Heineken NV shares surged 13% as the brewing company reported strong demand for premium brands. ABN Amro Bank NV jumped over 8% after reporting net interest income that exceeded forecasts.
Inflation in the U.S. remains the most critical topic today. It is likely to have remained unchanged in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's patient approach to cutting borrowing costs. Markets are closely watching for any signs of inflation cooling, but January's data may disappoint expectations.
Given this outlook, the Fed will likely maintain a cautious stance, weighing the risks of a premature rate cut against the risks of keeping rates too high for too long. Comments from Fed officials following the CPI report will be of particular interest.
Yesterday, Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts, citing the resilience of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Treasury yields stabilized after a broad decline across the curve on Tuesday.
Clearly, until there is greater clarity on mid-term inflation trends, the U.S. stock market—particularly the S&P 500—will remain in neutral territory.
Here are some inflation forecasts from leading global financial institutions. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Market Intelligence estimates that the S&P 500 could drop by 2% if the January CPI report shows an increase of 0.4% or more compared to the previous month. "Expect the bond market to react sharply, as it may reassess its view that Fed funds rates are not restrictive enough and that the next likely Fed move is a hike rather than a cut," the bank noted. A shift in bond yields would push the U.S. dollar higher, exerting additional downward pressure on equities. Consensus estimates suggest a monthly CPI increase of 0.3%, which could result in a modest 1% move in the S&P 500.
Oil prices declined following an industry report that indicated a significant buildup in U.S. crude inventories. Gold is falling for the second consecutive session after reaching a new high earlier this week.
Technical Outlook for S&P 500
Demand remains strong, and the primary target for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance at $6,069. Achieving this will support the continuation of the uptrend and pave the way for a rally toward $6,079.
A secondary bullish target will be maintaining control above $6,089, which would strengthen buyers' positions.
If risk appetite declines, buyers must assert themselves around $6,058. A break below this level would quickly push the index back to $6,047, potentially opening the door for further declines toward $6,038.
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