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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair retraced to the 1.2611–1.2620 resistance zone on Monday but once again failed to close above it. A confirmed rebound from this zone will favor the U.S. dollar and initiate a new decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2538 and the 1.2488–1.2508 support zone. A break above 1.2611–1.2620 would increase the probability of further pound appreciation.
The latest completed downward wave did not break below the previous low, while the most recent upward wave surpassed the previous peak. This suggests that a bullish trend is still forming. However, recent waves vary significantly in size and present multiple structural interpretations. There is no certainty that the bullish trend will continue for another few weeks, but at the same time, the recent strong rally of the pound cannot be ignored.
The fundamental backdrop was lacking on Monday, aside from a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Bailey did not provide any significant updates. This morning, a series of reports on the UK economy were released. The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, contrary to forecasts, which is positive for bulls. However, the number of unemployed increased by 22,000, twice as much as expected. Wages grew by 6%, up from 5.5% previously.
From a bullish perspective, this data is positive because higher wages could fuel inflation, potentially leading to a less dovish stance from the Bank of England. The unchanged unemployment rate is also a supportive factor. However, these reports are unlikely to provide fundamental support for the pound, as their impact on monetary policy remains uncertain, and GDP growth remains weak.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise, remaining within the 1.2565–1.2620 resistance zone. If bulls keep pushing higher without fundamental support, GBP could continue rising to any level. However, the current fundamental backdrop does not support further gains. In this situation, technical analysis holds more weight when making trading decisions.
The COT report for the past week shows that sentiment among Non-commercial traders has become less bearish. The number of long positions in the hands of speculators increased by 3,645, while the number of short positions decreased by 4,510. The gap between Long and Short positions remains in favor of bears: 69,000 vs. 72,000.
I still see potential downside for the pound, and the COT data suggests a gradual strengthening of bearish positions. Over the past three months, long positions decreased from 120,000 to 69,000 and short positions dropped from 75,000 to 72,000.
I believe that institutional traders will continue unwinding their long positions or increasing shorts since all possible bullish catalysts for GBP have already been priced in. While technical analysis currently suggests further upside, corrections are expected.
United Kingdom:
Since these reports have already been released, the market impact for the rest of the day should be minimal.
Short Positions: Selling GBP/USD is possible if the pair rebounds from the 1.2611–1.2620 resistance zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2538 and 1.2508.
Long Positions: Buying opportunities were present upon a break above 1.2363–1.2370, targeting 1.2488–1.2508. This target has been reached, so I would not recommend new long positions at this time.
Fibonacci Levels:
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